Fundamentals:
The global market opened on Monday with gold down, oil down, U.S. stock futures down, and Bitcoin plummeting; almost every corner of the world is seeing declines. However, ETH remains relatively strong, continuously consolidating in the 4670-4888 range, even briefly breaking the 4888 high to create a new high of 4957, and then pulling back.
First, the market did not continue to press the advantage but instead declined (capital is cashing out rather than continuing to increase), and the reason is not complicated: profit-taking. After calming down, investors realized that Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole annual meeting implied 'a one-time rate cut' rather than initiating a rate cut cycle. The market had already digested the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut in September a week ago, so the enthusiasm began to cool.
Compared Powell's remarks about rate cuts at Jackson Hole on two occasions, indicating a 'restrained' approach to rate cuts:
* Last year: The time for policy adjustment has arrived, and the direction of progress is clear;
* This year: Risk balance seems to be shifting, and policy adjustments may be needed (the signals are not as clear as last year's meetings).
Powell seems more like he is 'forced to acknowledge that risks are changing' rather than actively initiating a loosening cycle. In other words, he is not looking to flood the market but to take a precise breather. The market's desire for a 'sustained rate-cut cycle' may be unrealistic unless upcoming data clearly supports it. If the data is weak, we might even see a scenario of 'cutting once and then stopping'. Therefore, the market's optimism in the short term could easily dissipate with a gust of wind.
Additionally, it should be noted that the Federal Reserve has not yet reached a consensus on a rate cut in September, and Powell still needs to persuade other Fed officials who oppose the cut. However, if the upcoming non-farm payroll and CPI data do not support a cut, Powell may also find himself in a hesitation. The most challenging task for the central bank is to seize the right timing during transitional periods.
Second, Bitcoin is a very good reference; its normal opening over the weekend, combined with the declines over the two trading days, has completely given back the gains from last Friday — this has sounded an alarm for other markets.
Third, this wave of market activity is actually very fragile, completely held hostage by AI and rate cut expectations. Powell's speech is like a shot of adrenaline, but whether it can extend life really depends on whether NVIDIA can sustain the 'AI myth'. NVIDIA will announce its quarterly results after the market closes on Wednesday; if the earnings report continues to shine, the market may temporarily ignore high valuations and continue to revel. But if it falls slightly short of expectations, the higher it rises, the harder it falls.
The market is now like walking a tightrope, with the left hand representing the Fed's 'restrained rate cuts' and the right hand representing NVIDIA's 'AI myth'. A slight breeze can throw the entire market off balance.
This Friday, the Federal Reserve will face its first major challenge — it will release the inflation data favored by the Fed — with the core PCE price index for the U.S. in July expected to grow by 2.9% year-on-year, the hottest reading since February. If economic activity picks up, businesses may be able to pass more tariff costs onto consumers. This could increase the risk that the upcoming 'August CPI and non-farm payroll' data may not support a rate cut in September.
Market performance: BTC closed at 113446 yesterday, down 1.64%, giving back most of Friday's gains, during which it briefly fell to 110484, testing the previous neck line support at 111988; ETH closed at 4778, down 0.02%.
Technical analysis:
The daily level candlestick closing is also quite meaningful; a star line, a doji, and if another bearish line follows, wouldn’t that be a perfect evening star? MACD divergence, observe OBV; prices are at new highs but OBV maintains a high-level consolidation, which aligns with the distribution of chips, so I am bearish on the daily level. Looking at the future trend on the daily level, conservatively, it should be 4200.
The 4H trend showed a platform formation over the weekend, in the range of 4767-4888. It is now confirmed that 4957 is a false breakout; according to candlestick analysis, it indicates a breakout followed by a decline. By the time of this post, the price has already dropped, and it is unclear whether there will be another opportunity to rebound to 4800. If there is, please boldly short. First, focus on the previous day's low of 4767 for support, which is unlikely to hold.
