#特朗普罢免美联储理事库克 Fundamentals:
Yesterday, the market focused mainly on Trump's firing of Federal Reserve Governor Cook. The global market had little volatility, but it was significant—this reflects fears of the Federal Reserve losing its independence. The market's understanding varies; from a short-term perspective, the US stock market considers Trump's replacement of the governor and his appointment of allies makes it easier to achieve rate cuts; however, from a long-term perspective, this event is seen as a blow to the credibility and independence of the Federal Reserve, which in turn impacts the dollar. The overall market response was relatively mild, not because this matter is unimportant, but rather 'too important, making the market hesitant to price it'.
According to market news, Federal Reserve Governor Cook's lawyer stated that a lawsuit will be filed regarding (Trump's) dismissal. President Trump stated, 'I already have someone in mind to replace Federal Reserve Governor Cook. We will soon hold the majority positions in the Federal Reserve. I may move Milan to another longer-term position in the Federal Reserve.'
The market is still waiting for this event to further ferment (not ignoring, but waiting): will the court rule in favor of Cook or Trump?
If it's the former, the independence of the Federal Reserve is temporarily maintained, and there is no overall harm. If it's the latter, it will be a 'systemic fracture' scenario, with the simultaneous plummet of the dollar, US stocks, and US bonds reoccurring.
The market currently has a mindset of 'temporarily returning to normal'. There is a short-term sigh of relief, but the risk premium will not completely disappear.
According to BlockBeats news on August 26, as reported by GlobeNewswire, Yorkville Acquisition Corp. (NASDAQ: YORK), Trump Media & Technology Group, and Crypto.com today announced that the three parties have signed a final agreement to merge their businesses, forming Trump Media Group CRO Strategy, Inc., a digital asset treasury company focused on acquiring the Cronos ecosystem's native cryptocurrency (CRO). As a result of this news, CRO briefly broke through $0.2, currently quoted at $0.192, with a 24-hour increase of 19.08%.
Additionally, there is news about ETH predictions. Standard Chartered Bank still predicts that ETH could reach $7,500 by the end of the year. Based on a calculation rule from wave theory (Financial Technical Analysis, page 280), the length of wave 1 multiplied by 3.236 (=2*1.618), added to the peak and trough of wave 1, gives the maximum and minimum targets for wave 5, which are approximately 7276 and 5885 (the first wave on a weekly level is 1384-2738). Long-term, I am also optimistic about ETH. This year's narrative is particularly good, with a dual core narrative of stablecoins and RWA, plus the Treasury's buying spree.
Market performance:
Due to the short-term impact of Trump's firing of Cook, BTC closed yesterday at 111709, up 1.5%, during which it briefly fell below the 109000 support; ETH closed at 4598, up 5.13%; gold closed at 3443, up 0.95%; NQ100 closed at 23067, up 0.45%.
Technical analysis:
4H analysis: Focus on the resistance level around 4660-4670 above; this position can be considered for short selling. Also, pay attention to the downward trend line from 4957 to yesterday's rebound high of 4632; a rebound near this downward trend line is also a short position. Today's thought: short at highs. The 4H view is showing a combined adjustment, W (A-B-C) sawtooth adjustment, X any three-wave rebound, Y wave diffusion platform adjustment; currently, the Y wave should not be finished yet. It is expected that after the Y wave, there will be another X wave rebound, and after the X wave, a Z wave adjustment (most likely a triangular adjustment), with volatility not expected to be as large as from August 14 to August 23; specific analysis will be done then.