Since Bitcoin's launch more than 15 years ago, the same question keeps repeating: Who determines its price?
Is it the hands of major investors known as 'whales'?
Or are the developers who are developing the Bitcoin protocol the ones with influence?
Or are governments and economic decisions the main driver?
In 2025, the picture looks more complex than ever.
First: Whales – the most influential player.
Whales are investors or institutions that hold thousands of Bitcoin coins. Although Bitcoin is a decentralized system, the movements of these large wallets can change the market direction.
The number of wallets holding more than 1,000 Bitcoin rose to over 1,450 wallets by May 2025.
Institutions like MicroStrategy and BlackRock together control nearly 6% of the total supply, a huge number considering the total supply is fixed at 21 million coins.
But it’s not just about accumulation; whales often sell at peak times, leading to sudden corrections in the market.
Conversely, periods of stagnation in their movements usually coincide with strong rallies, as happened in April when Bitcoin surpassed $110,000.
In summary: Whale behavior is diverse; some accumulate for the long term, while others prefer to take quick profits. However, their impact remains crucial.
Second: Developers – building the foundations for the future.
Technical updates in the Bitcoin protocol do not happen frequently, but when they do, they leave a clear mark.
SegWit in 2017: Helped reduce fees and increase network efficiency, and was part of the backdrop for the massive rise at that time.
Taproot in 2021: Made transactions more private and efficient, opening the door to more advanced applications.
Ordinals and BRC-20 in 2023 and 2024: The introduction of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and meme coins on the Bitcoin network itself generated a multi-billion dollar market and raised mining fees.
The future (2025): The discussion now revolves around updates like Covenants and OP_CAT that may provide Bitcoin with greater flexibility for use in smart contracts and programmed payments.
Thus, developers do not directly move the price, but they lay the infrastructure that opens the door to new uses, which reflects on market confidence and its value.
Third: Governments – they do not control but do influence.
No government can fully control Bitcoin, but it is heavily influenced by regulatory decisions and economic policies.
Regulatory approvals: The U.S. decision in 2024 to allow Bitcoin ETF funds was a turning point, attracting billions of dollars from institutions and pushing the price above $73,000.
Restrictive legislation: EU proposals to impose restrictions on self-custody wallets caused a temporary downturn due to privacy concerns.
Economic policies: The U.S. Federal Reserve's halt on raising interest rates in late 2023 and its signals to reduce them in 2024 increased investor appetite for Bitcoin as a rare asset.
China as an example: Despite the ongoing ban on trading and mining, demand remained strong through offshore platforms and OTC deals, proving that Bitcoin transcends geographical boundaries.
Thus, governments do not directly control, but they shape the environment in which the market operates.
Who really determines the price?
The answer: everyone… and no one.
Whales move liquidity at critical times.
Developers are shaping the future of the network and providing it with new functions.
Governments exert pressure or support through economic and regulatory decisions.
Macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation, and the strength of the dollar determine global risk appetite.
Sentiment and narratives are among the most important drivers: A wave of public optimism can greatly raise the price, while institutional caution may lead to a rapid downturn.
In the end, Bitcoin is not just a financial asset; it reflects a mix of belief, trust, and the ongoing confrontation between multiple forces.
Its price today is not a final judgment, but a momentary pulse that translates the interaction of the markets with all these forces.
$BTC
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