Stop worrying about whether interest rates will drop in September! Several of my friends who play stocks in the US and work in traditional secondary markets have quietly done something – they moved 10%-15% of their positions into altcoins! It's not blind buying; they're watching for projects with real profits to ambush. This signal is more accurate than any candlestick chart: once ETH completely breaks 5000 dollars and FOMO sentiment explodes, traditional secondary market funds will rush in, and the altcoin season will be a done deal!
One, don't be fooled by the 'altcoins are useless' theory! These projects could see a 10 times premium if placed in the US stock market.
Some people still say 'altcoins are all worthless,' but to be honest, there are quite a few 'cash cows' hidden in the space; many just haven't looked at the data seriously.
Uniswap: Last month, it collected over 21 million dollars just in trading fees, which is higher than the monthly revenue of many small and medium-sized companies in the US stock market, and the user count is still increasing. If listed on the US stock market, it would surely be considered a 'high-growth target' with a valuation at least five times higher.
Aave: The current lending TVL (locked amount) is stable above 8 billion dollars, with a bad debt ratio of less than 0.1%. It makes stable profits from lending interest. This kind of 'low risk, high return' model is something that institutional investors in the US are eager to buy.
Ethena: Just over six months since launch, the staking volume has surged past 1.5 billion dollars, with an annualized yield stable at 8%-12%. There's no flashy concept; it simply attracts funds through 'stable arbitrage.' If it were listed on the US stock market, it might see a first-day increase of over 200%.
There are also Hyperliquid, Pump, Pendle, which are not relying on hype but are genuinely engaged in 'profitable businesses.' The next step is likely to attract US stock market funds using a 'coin-stock comparison' approach – just think about it, US stock players are tired of 3%-5% annual growth and suddenly discover projects in the crypto space that can 'earn millions a month and grow over 100% a year.' How can they not be tempted?
Two, a pattern validated by three cycles: when BTC.D drops, altcoins go crazy.
Experienced players understand a hard rule: whenever the voice that 'BTC is the only value' is the loudest, it's the prelude to the altcoin season. Looking back at three bull market data cycles, there has never been an exception.
2017 bull market: BTC.D dropped from 68% to 38%, and if you randomly grabbed a mainstream altcoin, like XRP or ETH, they all increased more than 10 times.
2021 bull market: BTC.D dropped from 72% to 41%, while altcoins like SOL and AVAX surged 3-5 times more than BTC.
Currently: BTC.D has dropped from 65% to 58%, but note – this share has mostly been consumed by ETH, and the market cap share of altcoins is still around 12% (according to the latest Glassnode data), which is far less than the 35% during the altcoin season in 2021, meaning 'the bullets are not yet loaded.'
As per the old rule, I still expect the peak of this bull market to see BTC.D drop to 40%, which means there is still a huge upside potential for altcoins. It feels like October 2020 – back then, BTC had just broken 20,000 dollars, and everyone was shouting 'BTC is the only player.' As a result, altcoins surged later, and many people lamented, 'I wish I had bought back then.'
Three, don't rush to switch altcoins! Remember these three points to avoid 90% of the pitfalls.
If you want to follow the layout, don't listen to the hype of 'new coins can make a hundred times.' I have friends who fell into a pit last year: they bought a new altcoin that claimed to be the leader in Web3 social, but it ran away three days after launch, losing 50,000 U. You must focus on these three types of targets:
At least projects that have endured a significant bear market.
Projects that have endured the 2022 bear market have strong risk resistance. For example, Uniswap's TVL dropped from 10 billion dollars to 2 billion dollars during the bear market in 2022, but it didn't collapse and has now risen back to 8 billion dollars; Aave also withstood three black swan events. These 'weathered projects' won't easily go to zero; at least they have a solid foundation.
Cash cows that can be verified for data and profitability.
Don't believe in 'making money in the future'; look at 'making money now.' For example, with Pendle, you can check its annualized yield, user growth, and fee income on its official website, with clear data every month; Hyperliquid's active trader count and daily trading volume can also be verified on-chain. Projects with this kind of 'data transparency' are not just hot air.
Practical products that you can understand and use.
If you read a project's white paper three times and still don't understand it, and you haven't tried the product, don't touch it no matter how hot it is. For example, if you often use Uniswap to swap coins and know how it charges fees and protects user assets, then you understand its value; but if you can't even figure out 'staking' or 'arbitrage,' don't buy projects like Ethena that require operation, or else you'll lose and not even know why.
Four, don't panic! This is just a 'warming-up period.' I'll call you when it's time to escape the top.
Many people ask, 'Can we go all in now?' My advice is: don't panic; the rhythm has just begun! ETH hasn't broken 5000 dollars yet, traditional funds are still watching, and altcoins are just doing small-scale 'testing.' The real climax will come after ETH rises and FOMO sentiment kicks in.
You can first select 3-5 targets that meet the above three conditions. Add a little position with each pullback; don't go all in at once. For example, if you have 100,000 U, start with 20,000 U for layout and wait to add 30,000 U when ETH breaks 5000 dollars, leaving the rest to cope with possible pullbacks.
Rest assured, I know when to escape the top: when BTC.D drops below 45%, and the proportion of altcoin trading volume exceeds 30%, or when certain altcoins start 'unreasonably pumping,' I will signal in the fan group at the first opportunity. We will retreat together; I will never let my brothers and sisters stand guard.
The group has now organized a 'list of 5 altcoin targets that meet the criteria.' If you want to copy the homework, you can follow me; I will continue to update the latest data on these projects.
