How to choose a project? Actually, there are just a few dimensions!
First, the narrative needs to keep up.
Currently, there are only a few main lines in the market: AI, RWA, Restaking, new stories of public chains, and even Meme. As long as capital is willing to engage, if the story has buyers, it can be hyped. No matter how good your technology is, if no one is buying, it will just be self-appreciation.
Second, look at market capitalization and circulation.
New investors primarily watch market capitalization, while experienced ones focus on unlocking. No matter how strong a story is, if its market cap is in the hundreds of billions, the ceiling is already set; conversely, if the market cap is single digits and circulation is healthy, once capital pushes it, there is huge potential. Never buy into those that will soon have a large number of tokens unlocked to crash the price; it’s just throwing money away. Some can be played for short-term unlocks, but generally, the downside risk-to-reward ratio is not worth it!
Third, strength and background.
If a project can get listed on major platforms (like bn, OK, cb), it at least indicates that there is strength behind it. It either has capital backing or an experienced team. Also, look at the investors behind it; if it has names like a16z or Paradigm, it indicates it won't be poor and won't die quickly.
Fourth, economic model.
Is there any revenue? Is there buyback or burning? Are the tokens and protocols tightly bound? Once the market returns, funding will shift the valuation logic. Conversely, pure governance plus unlimited unlocking is just cannon fodder.
Lastly, on-chain and community.
Look at the real user count, TVL, active addresses, and the popularity of push and DS, as many are just bots.
To summarize:
If it meets several conditions—launching simultaneously at the top, strong backing, narrative keeping up, reasonable market cap and circulation—generally, buying in will not lead to losses.
Then, for new sectors, if you can identify them early, just dive in without thinking. From my experience, as long as you discover a new sector early, diving in gives you at least an 80% chance of winning! (From Xiao Xin)
