Crypto_心诚

The Ethereum Pectra upgrade is approaching early next month. This is an important upgrade for Ethereum.

There are quite a few changes, some of which include enhancements to user experience. For example, the Pectra upgrade supports gasless transactions for users, which will unlock more application scenarios, such as users using applications for free, and even users being able to use applications without ETH, as third parties can cover the costs.

This is beneficial for attracting early users, especially since some applications can subsidize early users to achieve a cold start.

Additionally, it supports batch transactions (multiple operations bundled into one transaction, requiring only one signature), which can reduce the complexity of user operations. And so on. In short, lowering the user threshold will help in onboarding new users and unlock more application possibilities, giving rise to new gameplay.

However, these changes are long-term and will require a long time to accumulate before they can produce positive feedback for the development of the ecosystem; for a long time, Ethereum's price will still rely on emotions and capital for driving.

This week's highlights:
4/30 US Core PCE data (expected 2.6%)
5/1 Bank of Japan interest rate decision
5/2 US non-farm data
Large unlocks:
OP: 4/30 unlocks $24.32 million (accounting for 1.89% of circulation)
SUI: 5/1 unlocks $259 million (accounting for 2.28% of circulation)
ENA: 5/2 unlocks $13.98 million (accounting for 0.73% of circulation)

Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. CPI data for March will be released. The current dilemma for the Federal Reserve: Should they cut rates to offset tariffs (positive for the cryptocurrency market) or raise rates to combat inflation (negative for the cryptocurrency market)?
If the CPI is higher than expected, it will be negative for the cryptocurrency market and may drop slightly; if lower than expected, it will be positive for the cryptocurrency market and U.S. stocks.
From the current perspective, this data is not very significant because it does not include the additional tariffs besides the 20% on China, not to mention the 10% basic tariff that only starts on April 2.

However, this CPI data can still be seen as a reference point before and after the full implementation of the new tariffs. According to market expectations, the previous CPI was 2.8%, and the market expectation is 2.6%, indicating that even with a 20% tariff increase on China, U.S. inflation is still on a downward trend. This would be the best countermeasure for the Federal Reserve. After the full implementation of the new tariffs, if the CPI data rises, they can shift the blame entirely to Trump.

From the current market predictions, broad inflation is decreasing, both year-over-year and month-over-month rates are down, while the core inflation year-over-year rate is down, and the month-over-month rate has a slight increase. Additionally, inflation data regarding used cars, rents, and services need to be monitored, as lower inflation data is definitely better.

Technical Analysis:
Yesterday's analysis and the bearish stance discussed in last night's session emphasized not shorting but rather looking for long opportunities on pullbacks. After experiencing a rebound yesterday, the market is currently undergoing a corrective phase. Today, attention should be paid to the CPI and the opening of the U.S. stock market at 9:30. Bitcoin is expected to remain in a consolidation phase. Support for BTC is at 80600-80000-79200, while resistance is at 83200-83900; for ETH, support is at 1545-1500, and resistance is at 1670-1760. The market is currently undergoing a one-hour correction, and given the news flow, it's crucial to set take-profit and stop-loss levels when trading. Consider shorting at resistance levels.

#币安投票上币 4.9
During this period, tariffs have caused a pullback in the entire financial market, with significant volatility. This round of tariffs primarily targets China, the European Union, and Russia. If China insists on imposing a 34% retaliatory tariff on the United States, then the U.S. will raise tariffs on China by an additional 50%, resulting in a total tariff rate of 104% (20% + 34% + 50%). Furthermore, the U.S. will cease all negotiations with China. If China also continues to push back, raising the 34% to 50% or higher, it would essentially sever business relations, making foreign trade impossible. Today, A-shares are in turmoil, while U.S. stocks fluctuated yesterday, rising then falling. We are witnessing a major transformation not seen in a century; U.S. tariffs are at their highest in history, and a significant shift in the global economy is beginning. Next, Trump will push for negotiations, and some breakthroughs are expected next week, with countries like Japan and South Korea potentially reaching agreements with the U.S. to lower tariffs.
China and the U.S. have also begun negotiations.
Only then can the entire market begin to recover.

High tariffs will further exacerbate inflationary pressures in the U.S. If inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve may be forced to delay interest rate cuts, increasing economic downward pressure. However, if clear signs of recession emerge (such as consecutive negative GDP growth), the interest rate cut cycle could begin earlier (with the market expecting a 125 basis point cut within the year).
Tariff policies have led to significant volatility in U.S. stocks, and with the implementation of 104%, it is predictable that market sentiment may collapse again, leading to sustained declines.
Currently, the major direction of the cryptocurrency market on a weekly level has not yet adjusted properly, so opportunities can only be found at smaller levels.
BTC
Currently, the support level is 74800; if this position holds, it will see a one-hour rebound, with resistance around 78000 to 79000. The defensive level on the weekly chart is at 72300, and the focus is on capturing rebounds after a pullback during the day.
ETH
Continuing to decline unilaterally, with daily support at 1430-1366 and resistance at 1480-1528.
There are opportunities for both long and short positions now, but both must use stop-losses.

#美国加征关税

There are over 440,000 ETH ($640 million) on-chain with liquidation prices above $1,000, primarily concentrated in the following 5 whale addresses:

1⃣ 53,074 ETH, borrowed $46.68 million, liquidation price $1,495.
2⃣ 24,690 ETH, borrowed $21.70 million, liquidation price $1,274.
3⃣ 210,000 ETH, borrowed $144.80 million, liquidation price $1,172.
4⃣ 100,394 ETH, borrowed $78.40 million, liquidation price $1,132.
5⃣ 55,000 ETH, borrowed $34.60 million, liquidation price $1,070.

#加密市场回调

The tariff table has been released #美国加征关税

Monday is the Presidents' Day holiday in the United States, so the US stock market will be closed on Monday. There are no extremely critical macro data this week, which means the macroeconomic factors will have a lower impact on the market and can be used to repair the market. This week, we can slightly look forward to some data: one is the minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting at dawn on Thursday, where we can see how the Federal Reserve officials view tariffs. The other is the Michigan University inflation forecast on Friday night.

Technical Analysis:
BTC
Currently, Bitcoin needs more time for repair at the weekly level, and the wide oscillation range will be around 92000 to 105000. To strengthen in the short term, it needs to break through 98600 to reach above 100000, with short-term support at 95700-94100-92000.

ETH
At this position, the technical analysis also requires time for repair. The daily level will correct the distance of moving averages, allowing for a slight rebound. The rebound space is limited, with resistance above around the 2785 and 2900 range. After making a move upwards on the daily chart, it will still come down for a pullback, with support below at 2600-2200.
The Ethereum Prague upgrade will start on April 8.

Currently, 13 states have attempted to establish a BTC strategic reserve, with three states about to enter the Chamber Vote phase. The earliest these three states could pass is in the first quarter.
#加密市场反弹 $BTC

After Trump took office, the market was driven by news, initially affected by negative tariff news which caused a drop, and then a 30-day extension on tariffs was announced. After yesterday's fluctuations, the price of Bitcoin has not changed much, but most market participants have suffered significant losses in their positions. Currently, from the overall perspective of the market, there is no new narrative or direction emerging, so we are focusing on certainty and extremely certain tokens. The market will maintain a period of turbulence for some time, with Bitcoin's key support level at 92000. If 92000 is not breached, it will fluctuate around 92000 to 105000. Ethereum's support level is at 2200, with support at 2460, and in the short term, it will fluctuate around 2200-3030.

The U.S. Treasury has agreed to allow Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to access a payment system that distributes trillions of dollars in benefits, grants, and tax refunds to Americans each year, typically managed by career civil servants. Treasury Secretary Bessenet approved this initiative. The Treasury's payment system is one of the main financial arteries of the U.S. government, and any disruption in its operation could lead to far-reaching economic chaos. Former Treasury officials say it is unusual for politically appointed personnel to be involved in managing the payment network, as it includes a strict protocol to ensure the security and privacy of payment operations. It is not yet clear how DOGE representatives intend to use their access to the payment system. Sources say DOGE representatives will not have direct authority to stop individual payments or make other changes; their access is "read-only." Bessenet approved this arrangement on the condition that the activities of DOGE representatives must be documented and subject to oversight. The source said that DOGE representatives intend to review the overall efficiency of the payment system.
$DOGE #微策略持续增持BTC

ETH
I believe most people in the circle are expecting Ethereum to pull up the market, but it did not go as expected!
Ethereum is expected to upgrade the mainnet on March 11, so February is the best time for it to perform, but currently combined with the secondary market, it has not strengthened, and it has not reached a bottom position.
At present, 3060 is a very important support. If it breaks through, it will go around 2800 and return to the 20s!
I personally think that Ethereum should have a good performance in 2025, focusing on two points:
The first is its mainnet upgrade
The second is its application for the pledged version of the ETF
It is expected to be completed in 25 years, so there are still corresponding expectations and narratives for it to perform. It depends on whether the final project party can go around the expectations and give the market a wave of confidence as the leader of the copycat
Support below: 3060-2930-2770
#心诚 $ETH #加密市场反弹

On the fifth day of the Lunar New Year, welcome the God of Wealth!

BTC
From December to now, it has been two months, and it has basically been in a so-called 'garbage' market. At this position, everyone has their own opinions. Some friends see a continuous upward trend that could reach 120,000 to 150,000, while others see a lower target of 80,000. After two months of fluctuations, the upward momentum at this position is gradually weakening. This year, despite significant positive news and transitions of power, it has not driven the price up, which is indeed influenced by the broader environment and funding.
Currently, Bitcoin's weekly level has made a pullback. Even if the daily line does not break below 92,000, it will continue to fluctuate and repair around the range of 92,000 to 109,000. You can refer to the period from March to November 2024.
To put it directly: At this position, I personally believe that it has not yet corrected adequately, therefore, the upward strength in the short term is not strong, and it will still experience fluctuations and a downward trend. Lower support levels: 96,500-92,000-88,000
$BTC #心诚 #加密市场反弹

Happy New Year! May everyone have a smooth and worry-free Year of the Snake, and may all wishes come true 💐💐💐#Sincerity

Currently, the market is almost focused on these four tokens for new spot ETFs, and the expected approval rates are ranked from high to low:
SOL XRP LTC DOGE

SEC rules first look at whether it is sufficiently decentralized, and then whether there is a possibility of market manipulation.

#心诚 $BTC

ETFs record highest 3-month inflow totals ever...
Q4 revenues exceed $430 billion.
November ($160 billion) and December ($150 billion) set highest monthly inflow totals ever.
ETF inflows in 2024 = record $1.15 trillion

#币安全球用户突破2.5亿 $BTC #心诚

There are four major events in January that will test the US stock and cryptocurrency markets in the next month.

1. On January 10, the United States will release its monthly employment report, reflecting the health of the US economy. If US job growth remains good and the unemployment rate stabilizes at 4.2%, it will lay the foundation for the 25-year opening trend of US stocks and cryptocurrencies.

2. The fourth quarter earnings season will also kick off in January. The fourth quarter earnings season generally brings US stock market trends, and related industries such as AI are closely linked to the cryptocurrency market.

3. Trump will be inaugurated on January 20. It is expected that he will issue at least 25 executive orders on immigration, energy and cryptocurrency policies on that day. The market is closely watching which of these proposed policies will actually be implemented, and these policies will have a significant impact on the US dollar, foreign exchange, technology, and cryptocurrency.

4. The Federal Reserve held another interest rate meeting in January. Previously, due to the uncertainty of the inflation outlook, the number of interest rate cuts will be reduced in 2025. This meeting will give a glimpse of the Federal Reserve's assessment of the Trump administration on the US economy and inflation.

#心诚 $BTC

$BIO
Let me first say the conclusion. I will sell directly at the opening.

If you hold BNB configured private directors for financial management, you will get BIO airdrops.

The total funds of Binance airdrops are 1.4 billion, and the airdrop volume of #BIO is 100 million. According to the annualized return of 10%, the airdrop yield is 1%, which generates about 140 million US dollars in revenue.

At present, the futures price of #BIO is 0.87-0.9. According to the futures price valuation of 0.87×14 0.9×14, it is about 10-110 million, so the corresponding price is between $1.2-1.4.

$BTC #BIO #心诚

In recent days, with the decline in Bitcoin prices, many friends have begun to pessimistically wonder if the market is failing. The only factors that can currently drive the price up are verbal positives. Since the election ended, Bitcoin has maintained around 95,000 for a while. Later, it was the frequent new appointments that began to push the price up. However, as of today, there has not yet been anything substantial, and instead, we are facing negative news with the SEC slowing down interest rate cuts, so a correction in sentiment is inevitable. The overall trend of the election has not ended; only the election phase has concluded, and the transition phase has not yet taken place. With the inauguration on January 20th, there may be a wave of expectations, such as if Trump mentions cryptocurrency or Bitcoin in his inauguration speech, that would be enough to excite the market. Starting this week, we have entered the Christmas holiday period. Christmas does not necessarily lead to a decline every time; the key is to see how the sentiment is before Christmas. If the sentiment before Christmas is poor, it will indeed affect price trends due to low liquidity. However, this January has enough expectations. Therefore, after the SEC's 'panic' ends, the market will gradually repair its sentiment. Concerned investors have gradually exited during the panic, and what remains are either short-term investors or those brave enough to gamble. Periodic fluctuations are not necessarily bad; after fluctuating around $26,000 for eight months, it quickly surged to $73,000, and after fluctuating around $65,000 for eight months, it quickly surged to $100,000. It is expected to be a deleveraging process, but I prefer to describe it as cleaning out the 'weak' investors. After all, we have expectations for January; let's see what real positives Trump can bring for cryptocurrency next.
Therefore, when liquidity is weak and the market is not good, reduce the frequency of operations and wait patiently.

#心诚 #比特币市场波动观察 $BTC

Bitcoin has reached an important support position. From a general perspective, it has not stabilized, but it is also facing layers of support below. At present, the position of 92,000 is supported, so the position of 88,000 to 92,000 is a very important strong support. The range of ETH is 3,060 to 3,320. If it falls below 3,060, you have to pay attention to 2,800. Those who are optimistic about the trend can build positions in batches, because there are no other important data to be announced before Christmas. After Christmas to the handover of power on January 20, there are non-agricultural data on January 11 and CPI data on January 15. There is not much difference between CPI and PCE this time. Even if there is an impact, it is not a big problem. On the contrary, non-farm data is somewhat useful, but non-farm data has almost no negative impact, only positive impact, because the Fed currently defines the economy as very strong, and also hopes to cool down the job market, so the unemployment rate has dropped, indicating that the market continues to be good, so it continues to be suspended, which is in line with expectations. If the unemployment rate rises, it means that the economy is slightly turbulent, but it is not a big problem. It may prompt the Fed to consider cutting interest rates a few more times, so as long as there is no economic recession or black swan, then there may be no negative data before January 20!
#加密市场回调 $BTC #心诚

Bitcoin suffered a heavy blow for two consecutive days, retreating from 10.8w to 9.2w. Not only cryptocurrencies, but also global capital markets have generally fallen. The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P have all experienced rare oversold. The reason is that the Federal Reserve has conveyed hawkish remarks on future interest rate changes. This time the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 BP in line with market expectations. After the event, the US dollar interest rate fell back to between 4.25% and 4.5%, but the latest interest rate dot plot gave the capital a shudder.
The latest interest rate dot plot has been posted before. The horizontal axis is time, the vertical axis is interest rate, and the blue dots are the votes of the 19 members. The expectation for 2024 has arrived, but it will be concentrated at 4% in 2025, which means that there will only be 0.5% space next year. It was this 0.5% that caught the market "off guard" and began to adjust. The US dollar index quickly strengthened, global financial assets plummeted, and the exchange rates of various countries' currencies against the US dollar also fell. The RMB was naturally affected, but due to the strong US dollar, it had to wait for the US dollar to cut interest rates, and then make adjustments. This move made the RMB fall to the psychological bottom line of 7.3.
The Fed manipulates Bitcoin, rejects Bitcoin, and all these arguments are half of the unspeakable secrets of the initiators, and the other half are people who agree with them because of past experiences and the environment they are in.
First of all, the Fed’s first demand is to escort the US economy. Therefore, the three issues of GDP growth rate, fiscal deficit rate, inflation, unemployment rate and macro balance are the most important. Secondly, the trend I said cannot be changed. Although the macro-economy and changes in US interest rates have a great impact on the market, they have never become and cannot become the soil for curbing the trend. Moreover, today when the Internet promotes the breaking of barriers to information dissemination, the consensus of Bitcoin will not take another three thousand years like gold. The next 20 years will enter a period of high-speed penetration, and Bitcoin will continue to break through. Based on this, the current decline of Bitcoin is an opportunity, an opportunity given to us by the market, and an opportunity to make up for it after not buying in the bear market. Such an opportunity is not available to those who say "the Federal Reserve manipulates Bitcoin", those who are all-in for copycats, those who have no financial planning, those who are not aware of it, and those who are all-in. This is a historical strategic opportunity that our generation will never encounter again, and it is worth planning for 10 years or even longer.