This report, authored by Tiger Research, outlines our Bitcoin price forecast for Q3 2025, with a target price of $190,000, based on record global liquidity, accelerating institutional adoption, and a structural shift towards institutional dominance.
Key points
Bitcoin’s institutional adoption accelerates – US 401(k) retirement fund investment channels open up, ETFs and corporate entities continue to accumulate on a large scale
Best environment since 2021 – Global liquidity is at historical highs and major countries are in rate cutting mode
Shift from retail-led to institutional-led market – Despite signs of overheating, solid institutional buying supports downside risks.
Global liquidity expansion, institutional accumulation, and regulatory tailwinds drive Bitcoin adoption
Three core drivers are currently driving the Bitcoin market: 1) expanding global liquidity, 2) accelerating institutional capital inflows, and 3) a crypto-friendly regulatory environment. These three factors, working in concert, have created the strongest upward momentum since the 2021 bull run. With Bitcoin's annual growth rate reaching approximately 80%, we believe there are limited factors that could derail this upward momentum in the short to medium term. Regarding global liquidity, a key point of note is that the M2 money supply in major economies has surpassed $90 trillion, a record high. Historically, M2 growth rates and Bitcoin prices have exhibited similar directional patterns, suggesting significant room for further appreciation if the current monetary expansion continues (Exhibit 1).
In addition, President Trump's pressure for interest rate cuts and the Federal Reserve's dovish stance have paved the way for excess liquidity to flow into alternative assets, with Bitcoin becoming the main beneficiary.
Meanwhile, institutional accumulation of Bitcoin is proceeding at an unprecedented pace. US spot ETFs hold 1.3 million BTC, approximately 6% of the total supply, with MicroStrategy (MSTR) alone holding 629,376 BTC (worth $71.2 billion). Crucially, these purchases represent structural strategies, not one-off trades. MicroStrategy's continued purchases, particularly through convertible bond issuance, signal the formation of a new layer of demand.
Furthermore, the Trump administration's executive order issued on August 7th represents a game-changer. Opening up 401(k) retirement accounts to Bitcoin investment creates potential access to an $8.9 trillion pool of capital. Even a conservative 1% allocation would represent $89 billion—roughly 4% of Bitcoin's current market capitalization. Given the long-term holding nature of 401(k) funds, this development should not only contribute to price appreciation but also reduce volatility. This is a clear signal that Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative asset to a core institutional holding.
Institutions drive trading volumes while retail activity fades
The Bitcoin network is currently undergoing a restructuring around large investors. The average daily transaction count declined 41% from 660,000 in October 2024 to 388,000 in March 2025, yet the value of each Bitcoin transfer actually increased. The growing number of high-value transactions from institutions like MicroStrategy has increased the average transaction size. This signals a shift in the Bitcoin network from a "small, high-frequency" to a "large, low-frequency" transaction model (Exhibit 2). However, fundamental indicators show uneven growth. While institutional restructuring has clearly driven an increase in Bitcoin network value, transaction counts and active users have yet to recover (Exhibit 3).
Improving fundamentals are needed to kick-start the ecosystem through BTCFi (decentralized financial services based on Bitcoin) and other measures, but these are still in the early stages of development and will take time to have a meaningful impact.
Overbought, but institutions provide bottom support
On-chain indicators show some signs of overheating, but significant downside risk remains limited. The MVRV-Z indicator (which measures current prices relative to investors' average cost basis) is at 2.49, in overheated territory, having recently spiked to 2.7, warning of a near-term pullback (Exhibit 4). However, both the aSOPR (1.019), which tracks investors' realized profits and losses, and the NUPL (0.558), which measures the market's overall unrealized profits and losses, remain stable, indicating overall market health (Exhibits 5 and 6).
In short, while current prices are high relative to the average cost basis (MVRV-Z), actual selling is occurring at modest profit-taking levels (aSOPR), and the market as a whole has not yet reached excessive profit-taking territory (NUPL).
This dynamic is supported by institutional buying power outstripping retail buying. Continued accumulation from ETFs and MicroStrategy-type entities is providing solid price support. A short-term pullback is possible, but a trend reversal seems unlikely.
Target price $190,000, with 67% upside potential
Our TVM (Time Value of Money) methodology derives our $190,000 price target through the following framework: We establish a base price of $135,000 (removing extreme fear and greed from the current price), then apply a +3.5% fundamental multiplier and a +35% macro multiplier.
The fundamental multiplier reflects improvements in network quality—higher transaction value despite fewer transactions. The macro multiplier captures three powerful forces: expanding global liquidity (e.g., M2 exceeding $90 trillion), accelerating institutional adoption (e.g., ETFs holding 1.3 million BTC), and an improving regulatory environment (e.g., $8.9 trillion unlocked through 401(k) eligibility).
From current levels, this implies a 67% upside potential. While the target is aggressive, it reflects the structural changes taking place in Bitcoin as it transitions from a speculative asset to an institutional portfolio allocation.
(The above content is excerpted and reprinted with permission from our partner PANews. Original link | Source: Tiger Research)
The article "Liquidity explodes, institutions accelerate their entry! Research: Bitcoin's Q3 target price is $190,000" was first published on (Blockker).
