#美联储政策解读 #加密货币行情分析 #以太坊ETF通过 Ethereum investment strategy: The euphoria in the group from yesterday's ETH rally hasn't faded, and this morning's candlestick chart doused everyone with cold water. It's not that the main force is weak; it's that the Federal Reserve, this 'God of Wealth,' suddenly changed its face—just the day before, it hinted at 'possible interest rate cuts in September,' and then had 'new Federal Reserve correspondent' Nick Timiraos throw out an article advising caution. As someone who's been in the crypto space for eight years, I dare say: the temperature of this market is much cooler than you think.
Don't be fooled by the 'interest rate cut rhetoric'; the Federal Reserve's tactics have never changed.
Powell's statement yesterday that 'interest rates may be cut in September' made how many retail investors leverage and chase high? But Timiraos' article has clarified the matter: 'This is not the beginning of easing, just a reassurance for the market.' In plain language: at most, there will be one rate cut in September; if you expect to win by relying on a rate cut cycle, wake up early.
Old players should remember the 'bloody lesson' of 2021: The Federal Reserve first hinted at 'no change in easing,' and after retail investors heavily entered the market, suddenly announced tapering, causing Bitcoin to plummet from $60,000 to $30,000. This 'rise then fall' tactic essentially exploits market sentiment to harvest profits. The current situation is even more subtle—last year's Jackson Hole meeting, Powell said, 'the direction of policy adjustment is clear,' indicating real easing; this year he said 'the risk balance is changing,' which, put simply, means 'we're not sure yet, don't trade wildly.'
Internal conflicts are boiling; interest rate cuts may only be a 'one-time red envelope.'
The most dangerous signal is not Powell's vague statements, but the division within the Federal Reserve. The article directly points out three big names opposing interest rate cuts, including Cleveland Fed President Harker and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, both core decision-makers. What does this mean? Even if there is a lucky rate cut in September, it is highly likely to be a 'one-time benefit,' not the 'beginning of an interest rate cut cycle' everyone is expecting.
To put it simply: It's like the boss telling you, 'salary may increase next month'; last year it was 'how much and how it will increase is all decided,' this year it's 'first give you a holiday bonus, whether there will be an increase later depends on the mood.' More importantly, next Friday's July core PCE data—market expects it to rise to 2.9%, the highest point in half a year. If inflation really is this stubborn, don't even talk about interest rate cuts; not raising rates would be considered a blessing. I fell for this in 2018, heavily betting on ETH pausing rate hikes, but inflation data exceeded expectations, and ETH dropped from $800 to $100, almost causing me to delete the trading software.
Survival guide for crypto players: understand the direction before taking action.
The current market is like 'dancing on a tightrope'; every word from the Federal Reserve could trigger a butterfly effect. Here are three practical suggestions:
- For friends who chased high yesterday, set a stop-loss immediately. Don't fantasize that the Federal Reserve will 'rescue the market'; they are only responsible for 'harvesting' and not 'supporting';
- For those who haven't entered the market yet, don't rush to catch the bottom; wait until next Friday's PCE data is released to see the direction. The current volatility is driven by emotion, not a real trend.
- Pay close attention to US tech stocks and the US dollar index; if the Nasdaq breaks through a key support level, the crypto market will likely suffer.
Next steps for Shen Ge's layout direction: seize certain opportunities, avoid emotional traps.
Next, my rhythm is clear: first observe the digestion of this wave of news, focusing on two signals—the core PCE data next Friday and the series of speeches from Federal Reserve officials. If inflation rebounds beyond expectations, decisively reduce positions to avoid risks; if the data meets expectations and internal divisions ease, then consider positioning in undervalued quality assets.
In the long term, the underlying logic of the crypto market has not changed: the Federal Reserve's easing means a bull market, while rate hikes mean a bear market. But in the short term, remember: before the Federal Reserve's policies are clear, any shout of 'the bull market is coming' is just nonsense. I will track news dynamics in real-time in my fan group, updating 'Federal Reserve policy interpretations' and 'position management suggestions' daily. Friends who want to avoid this wave of risk should follow me.
In the crypto space, understanding the Federal Reserve's implications is more important than technical analysis. Remember: trends are waited for, not gambled on. Following reliable people to see the direction clearly is the way to survive the volatility and earn your share of the market.
