Author: Shen Ge talks trends #杰克逊霍尔会议
Hello friends in the crypto circle, I am Shen Ge. Today, let's have a good chat about ETH's market situation, analyzing tonight's ETH trend based on the ETH/USDT perpetual contract chart that everyone sees, and discussing what we should do next.
First, let's take a look at the data on the chart. The latest price of ETH has reached $4742.53, with a daily increase of an astonishing 9.78%. The 24-hour trading volume is also quite substantial, with ETH trading volume at 12.4611 million, and USDT trading volume reaching 57.84 billion. This wave of increase is indeed fierce, and many friends are eager to jump in, while some are feeling anxious, not knowing whether to continue rising or to correct.
Analysis of bullish factors, strong technical support
From the 4-hour candlestick chart, the previous period of consolidation has laid the foundation for this wave of increase. The short-term moving averages have formed a beautiful golden cross, which is a typical bullish signal. Moreover, the price has broken through the key resistance level of 4670. Once the resistance level is effectively broken, it means that the bullish strength has the upper hand and there is momentum for further advances. At the same time, in the MACD indicator, the DIF line (white line) is above the DEA line (yellow line), and the MACD histogram is continuously lengthening, indicating that the bullish momentum in the market is continuously strengthening.
Market sentiment drives
Recently, the overall atmosphere in the crypto circle has warmed up. As the prices of mainstream coins like Bitcoin stabilize, investors' confidence has somewhat recovered. As the king of public chains, ETH has a vast ecosystem, and fields such as DeFi and NFTs cannot do without it. Once market sentiment improves, capital will flow into these mainstream coins with practical application scenarios, driving prices up. Many investors see ETH's rising momentum and will also follow suit, forming buying pressure to push the price further up.
Analysis of bearish factors, overbought risk is evident
Although ETH is rising fiercely, from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), it has already entered the overbought zone. This means that the buying power in the market has been excessively consumed in the short term, which can easily trigger profit-taking. Once some investors choose to take profits and exit, it may lead to follow-up selling, causing the price to drop.
Concerns about shrinking trading volume
Observing the trading volume, it can be found that during this wave of increase, the trading volume did not continue to expand. Even when the price surged to $4888.49, the trading volume actually shrank. This indicates that there is insufficient capital to take over at high levels, and lacking adequate buying support, the momentum for the price to continue rising will weaken, potentially facing adjustment pressure at any time.
Uncertainty of macro factors
Tonight at 22:00, Powell will deliver a speech, which is a 'heavy bomb' affecting ETH's price. If Powell's speech is hawkish, the market's expectations for interest rate hikes will increase, and funds will flow from risk assets (like cryptocurrencies) to traditional safe-haven assets, putting pressure on ETH's price. Even if the speech content is neutral, the market may still experience short-term fluctuations due to uncertainty.
Tonight's operational suggestions
In summary, tonight's ETH trend is full of uncertainties. For friends who already hold ETH, if you are a long-term investor and optimistic about ETH's long-term development, you can continue to hold it without worrying too much about short-term fluctuations. However, for short-term investors, given the current overbought situation and trading volume, you might consider appropriately reducing your positions when the price surges to lock in some profits.
For friends who have not yet entered the market, it is advisable to wait and see the content of Powell's speech. If the speech is dovish, then ETH is likely to continue its upward trend, and one can consider entering lightly when it pulls back to relative support levels (such as around $4650 - $4670). However, if the speech is hawkish, it is better to remain inactive, waiting for market sentiment to stabilize and the price to stabilize before making further plans.
Note: Shen Ge diligently publishes articles every day, analyzing trends in the crypto circle. If you feel confused about the situation and want to understand more trends and directions, follow Shen Ge and check out the profile to learn more!
