Bitcoin currently accounts for about 1.7% of total global money according to River's estimates, decreasing to around 1.66% when calculated based on the current market cap.
This proportion is calculated by River by comparing Bitcoin's market cap with a basket of $112.9 trillion of fiat currency (global M2) and $25.1 trillion of hard cash (gold), excluding silver, platinum, and rare metals.
MAIN CONTENT
Bitcoin reaches ~1.7% of total global money when market cap exceeds $2.4 trillion; currently about 1.66% with $2.29 trillion (River).
Jerome Powell signals an early rate cut, maintains monetary expansion; Bitcoin rises more than 2% to around $116,000.
75% of investors expect the Fed to cut by 25 basis points in September according to CME FedWatch, reinforcing the liquidity backdrop supporting risky assets.
What percentage of the total global money does Bitcoin currently hold?
About 1.7% according to River when the market cap is at $2.4 trillion, and about 1.66% when the current cap is around $2.29 trillion.
River compares Bitcoin's market cap with a basket of $112.9 trillion of fiat currency (M2 of major and minor currencies) along with $25.1 trillion of hard cash (gold). Price volatility leads to changes in proportions, so the figure 1.7% only reflects when the market cap reached $2.4 trillion.
At the current recording point, the market cap of $2.29 trillion causes the proportion to shrink to about 1.66%, emphasizing price sensitivity and circulating supply.
How does River calculate the proportion of Bitcoin?
River balances Bitcoin's market cap with the total M2 of major and minor fiat currencies ($112.9 trillion) and hard cash as gold ($25.1 trillion), excluding silver, platinum, and palladium.
This calculation aggregates common liquidity measures (M2) and traditional store of value assets (gold), creating a broad 'money basket' picture. The exclusion of other metals helps avoid inflating hard cash, but also makes the results heavily dependent on the definition of money and River's estimation methodology.
"Over 16 years, Bitcoin has risen to 1.7% of the total global money."
– River, Bitcoin financial services company, 8/2025, source: X (formerly Twitter)
How has Bitcoin's market cap changed compared to the beginning of August?
Bitcoin surpassed $2.4 trillion at the beginning of August, but is now around $2.29 trillion, pulling the proportion from ~1.7% down to ~1.66%.
Market cap depends on price and circulating supply. It is highly volatile according to macro policy signals, capital flows into investment channels, and risk sentiment. Therefore, Bitcoin's proportion in the 'money basket' is a dynamic indicator, not a fixed value, needing continuous updates as prices change.
Why are Bitcoin and gold increasing market share in the context of fiat inflation?
Investors are shifting to 'hard cash' as central banks excessively print money, eroding purchasing power and driving hedge demand.
In a loosening cycle, the decline in purchasing power of fiat currency highlights the role of scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin. Defensive and speculative capital flows increase simultaneously, especially as inflation expectations, fiscal deficits, and balance sheet expansions continue.
What signals did Fed Chairman Jerome Powell send at Jackson Hole 2025?
He signaled an upcoming rate cut and stated that rates have approached neutral, implying continued controlled easing.
"Our policy interest rates are now closer to 100 basis points with neutral compared to a year ago, and the stability of the unemployment rate along with other labor market measures allows us to proceed cautiously when considering changes in stance."
– Jerome Powell, Fed Chairman, Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2025, source: Kansas City Fed (YouTube)
This signal reinforces expectations for rate cuts and maintains supportive liquidity. With assets sensitive to money supply like Bitcoin, this message often translates into short-term price increases, reflecting expectations of lower capital costs.
How does Powell's speech affect Bitcoin's price in the short term?
Immediately after the speech, Bitcoin's price rose more than 2%, reaching around $116,000 per BTC on Friday.
Immediate reactions often come from trading algorithms and investor expectations regarding the easing momentum. However, the durability of the upward trend depends on subsequent macro data, the pace of cuts, and risk appetite in the global asset market.
Why do cryptocurrencies often rise in price when global liquidity expands?
Increased liquidity reduces capital costs, and cash flows seeking yield shift towards growth and risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
In easing phases, the positive correlation between digital assets and global liquidity often increases. Net capital flows into channels like funds, exchanges, and derivative products tend to expand, raising market valuations, especially for scarce supply assets like Bitcoin.
How is the market expecting interest rate cuts according to CME FedWatch?
75% of investors forecast the Fed will cut by 25 basis points in September, according to CME FedWatch data.
CME FedWatch translates interest rate futures prices into policy scenario probabilities, reflecting collective expectations. High probabilities indicate a consensus on loosening, often supporting liquidity-sensitive assets like growth stocks and cryptocurrencies, though unexpected risks from inflation or employment data can quickly reverse these probabilities.
What notes should be considered when interpreting the figure of 1.7% 'total money' of Bitcoin?
This is an estimate dependent on Bitcoin's price, the definition of 'money' (M2, gold), and assumptions for exclusions (silver, platinum, rare metals).
M2 fluctuates according to policy cycles and data from each country; Bitcoin's market cap changes with real-time prices. Therefore, the proportion mentioned above is useful for relative comparison at a point in time, but not a fixed benchmark or intrinsic value indicator.
Quick comparison table: Bitcoin size, global M2, and gold according to River.
River aggregates global M2 and gold market capitalization to place Bitcoin in scale correlation. The values below reflect the latest announcement/recording according to sourced data.
Item Estimated Size Source Note Bitcoin $2.29 trillion Current market cap stated in original data M2 fiat currency (large + small) $112.9 trillion River, global M2 basket Hard cash (gold) $25.1 trillion River, excluding silver, platinum, palladium
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the figure of 1.7% for Bitcoin fixed?
No. The proportion changes according to Bitcoin's price and the way the 'money basket' size is determined. River records about 1.7% when the market cap reaches $2.4 trillion; with $2.29 trillion, the proportion is about 1.66%.
Why does River exclude silver, platinum from 'hard cash'?
River only counts gold to avoid inflating the size of hard cash and focuses on the most popular reserve asset. This is a methodological choice, not the only standard.
What did Powell say about interest rates at Jackson Hole?
He stated that interest rates are now close to neutral, more than 100 basis points compared to a year ago, and the Fed will proceed cautiously when adjusting policy. Source: Kansas City Fed (YouTube).
How did Bitcoin's price react after the speech?
Bitcoin rises more than 2%, touching around $116,000 per BTC right after the speech, reflecting expectations of monetary easing.
What probability of a rate cut is CME FedWatch indicating?
About 75% of investors expect the Fed to cut by 25 basis points in September, according to CME Group (FedWatch) data.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/btc-chiem-17-tong-tien-toan-cau/
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