Is the Bull Market Top Already In?
The clearest answer yet to the question on every trader’s mind.
• Every cycle feels different, but the emotions never change:
Euphoria near the top
Panic near the bottom
The edge isn’t spotting emotions.
It’s spotting the data behind them.
• So I pulled data from:
Bitcoin price action since 2011
Altcoin dominance
On-chain metrics (exchange inflows, wallet growth)
Global liquidity cycles
No predictions. Just patterns.
• In every cycle, the top had the same fingerprints:
Retail FOMO maxed out
Altcoins outperforming majors
Liquidity flooding in from TradFi
Sound familiar right now?
• Here’s the contrarian take:
The data doesn’t scream final top yet.
It screams: late-stage, overheated, but not finished.
Most traders confuse exhaustion with collapse.
• Key signal → Exchange inflows.
At tops, whales move coins to exchanges to sell.
Today? Inflows remain well below 2017/2021 peak levels.
Distribution hasn’t peaked.
• Remember:
2017 top → your taxi driver was hyped on Ripple
2021 top → TikTok kids shilled Doge to their grandmas
2025? Retail is active… but we’re not in mania mode yet.
• Think of the market as a marathon.
We’re not at mile 26 collapsing at the finish line.
We’re at mile 20–22: tired, stretched, but still running.
• Altcoin dominance matters.
Historically, alts go parabolic before the cycle ends.
Today? They’re strong, but not euphoric.
That’s still missing from the picture.
• Liquidity is king.
Liquidity cycles don’t show the final squeeze yet.
There’s still fuel in the tank.
• But don’t get comfortable.
“Not at the top” ≠ “Safe.”
Late-stage bull runs are brutal:
Face-melting pumps
Sudden crashes
Multiple fake tops
Survival > prediction.
• The bull market isn’t over.
Not even close.
The coming months could melt faces.
I’ll call it the second the data shifts.
Until then… stay positioned.
The best is still ahead.
