Speaking of which, Friday was really a great day. It's rare to see A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, and several crypto accounts all making money.

Powell's speech yesterday has already been detailed, so I won't elaborate further today. After the sentiment phase, there are still divergences. He actually made it very clear in the details of his speech that a change in policy direction is necessary due to the current employment market needing intervention. So if there is indeed a rate cut in September, will it be a preventive cut or a rescue cut? This will become a point of divergence in the long-short game over the next few weeks. Besides everyone's subjective analysis and thoughts, more data will need to support it in the upcoming weeks.

If we only look at Bitcoin, the surge yesterday went up from 11.20 to 1.60w. This segment of the order book is very empty, with almost no selling pressure to break through. The CVD was just +500 and it rose by 4000 points. (This is normal, as it happened just when the speech started, at the most enthusiastic moment.) Divergence only appeared above 11.60. Here at 11.60-11.70w, the CVD also increased by more than 500.

Last night, I judged in the group that the main focus was on whether the US stock market could push the price above 11.70w before closing. If it can hold, then continuing upwards to 120,000 over the weekend is possible. If it can't hold, it's likely that we will oscillate around 11.70w-11.50w this weekend. Because 11.70w is a significant turnover area and support level analyzed previously, nearly a million Bitcoins have turned over in the price range around 11.7x. It is also an important cost level for short-term traders. If it breaks, support turns to resistance, becoming a selling pressure zone.

So, if yesterday's sentiment can push us above 11.70, then this good news might bring another wave. If it doesn't hold, it might be driven by short-term sentiment, and we may have to wait for Monday when European and American funds have had a weekend to cool down and analyze before making a move.

This morning, as expected, 11.70 has indeed become a short-term resistance. I also took a glance at yesterday's ETF data; under such sentiment, ETF actually saw a net outflow (especially ibit).

Putting this together, there are some concerns. Is this rise just driven by short-term sentiment? If there is no subsequent net inflow of funds, it may not form a new upward trend, and we might have to continue oscillating. After all, this week saw a net outflow of 1.2 billion, dropping 10,000 points. In the absence of net inflows from ETFs, funds within the circle pulled back 5,000 points. Can it withstand selling pressure in the short term?

In light of the current situation, CVD continues to decline, while spot premiums are negative, indicating that spot is being sold off. For the short term, we should monitor the situation around 11.50.

So this weekend, I still maintain yesterday's viewpoint. For high shorts, we are looking at the turnover area around 11.70-11.75 that has been analyzed before. It’s a bit tricky to find the exit range; simply put, holding above 11.80 is the exit point, but there is heavy pressure at the 11.82 dense trading area, and a breaker block resistance at 11.85. There could be a reversal after touching those levels, which is uncertain. I feel that buying pressure during the week wouldn't be that strong. So, it still comes down to exiting at 11.80.

The first aggressive position for a low long is around 11.48-11.50. 11.50 is a previous support and turnover area, while 11.48 is the breaker block from the previous high on Thursday. At least it can catch a bounce. The size of the bounce is uncertain; it depends on sentiment whether it will be 500 points or 1000 points.

A more solid foundation below is around 11.35. This is a dense area of chips for this week.

Going further down, we still have the classic 11.20. This weekend isn't likely to drop directly back here; where it comes from is where it goes back to?!