There have been many things these two days, so I can only update a bit simply..
Researching all day... It seems that there is indeed no obvious reason for a downturn in various aspects. The question is whether it has been shipped out..
If we don't get into the specifics, after hitting 11.50 yesterday, Bitcoin has been moving quite orderly... It really follows the standard ICT/liquidity..
The lower part is a bit of an afterthought, let's treat it as a review analysis..
The cause is still the wave that hit 11.50 yesterday.. Yesterday it was judged that there should also be a strong support at 11.50.. (Psychological level + handover area + large orders over 300+)
But the rebound was weaker than I expected.. The first wave at 11.50 didn’t even give a chance to eat up 900 points before directly returning to hover around 1150.. Since 900 points weren't given, I could only grab 5-600 points at 1150 to make up for the losses from yesterday's dip...
After 11.50, the feeling of small rebounds and fluctuations at this support level is just like the feeling at 11.70 over the weekend.. Clearly at a significant support level, but it only held for a moment, and the rebound is obviously weak..
So after having this feeling yesterday, I went to see if there would be a repeat of the pattern after 11.50 similar to what happened after 11.70, a fake rebound, but in reality hitting the upper major cycle breaker block (at 11.85) before reversing downward..
If that's the case, then the major cycle breaker block above 11.50 is around 11.68... So I placed a short order at 11.68W while sleeping...
This morning I found it indeed... A typical short-term bearish movement.. Caught a wave
If we use the wave at 11.70 as a reference.. Doesn't this trend mean it needs to probe down to 11.20 again?
This is purely subjective inference.. Let's take a look at the current other technical aspects..
Currently, 11.40 just tried to poke through.. Instantly, hidden spot orders surged out.. After the price moved away, some of the orders were canceled again.. Currently, only a small order is left hanging..
So between 11.43~11.40 there should still be room to do at least a 500-point low long, just to work on this hidden spot buy order...
Going further down is difficult, I got stuck here for a long time while writing... From a technical perspective, this position is quite hard to trade...
It's completely impossible to judge where the momentum of this wave down will exhaust... Is it at 1140 here.. Or at 11.20, which is as strong a support point as 11.70..
Or the URPD gap between 11~11.20..
Everything can only be determined by emotions, and emotions are the hardest to guess..
(Or, should we look at Ethereum's signals to decide?)
So for a low long, I still want to act between 11.40~11.43.. There are order references.. If the order breaks and doesn't rebound, then run.. 11.2X, this is even more necessary to act on.. Not only should it be done intraday, but also consider adding to spot positions below this level.. As long as there are no major negative news, there must be a lot of people wanting to add to spot positions around 11~11.2W..
As for high shorts, it is also very difficult.. Now several obvious breaker blocks have been tested once (like 11.55, 11.6, 11.68) and who knows if they will be broken on a second test.. We also need to consider whether emotions might reverse upwards...
Unless, unless you consider trying a narrow stop loss at the above points as an option..
So today is hard to manage.. If you want stability, there are only areas below 11.2X and above 11.68.. But today may not necessarily give an opportunity..
And among these, there are many influencing factors, and the confidence level is not high...
It really tests personal operation and market observation...
