Fundamentals:
Yesterday's Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Meeting, Powell's remarks suggested interest rate cuts, triggering a frenzy in the financial markets. U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all surged, with Ethereum even hitting a new high of 4888. Powell's comments were less hawkish than expected, leaning more dovish. Did Powell compromise with Trump? Let's break down Powell's speech yesterday: 1. He did not mention the words 'interest rate cut,' but stated that the risk balance seems to be changing and that policy adjustments may be needed. However, it is precisely this statement that ignited expectations for rate cuts next month. Risk assets welcomed a frenzy, sweeping away the gloom of the previous days. In fact, Powell's overall tone was still cautious, without making any commitments, but the market feels that you might need to adjust policy, which suggests rate cuts. 2. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is always preventive. This time, the expectation for preventive rate cuts drives the global risk appetite recovery, leading to a short-term frenzy, but subsequent employment and inflation data will need a second confirmation.
Market Performance:
NQ100 closed up 1.56%, recovering the losses of the previous two days; Bitcoin closed at 116897, a daily increase of 3.94%; Ethereum performed even more impressively, with a daily closing surge of 14.36%.
Technical Analysis:
First assumption: Daily level adjustment, Wave A 4794-4060, Wave B 4060-4888, then this pattern conforms to a diffusion-shaped platform. The target for Wave C adjustment should be 1.618 times Wave A. Thus, the target for Wave C is 4888 - (4794-4060) * 1.618 = 3700.
Second assumption: Relatively complex, joint shape adjustment (double three waves or triple three waves), 4794-4060 is the joint shape adjustment Wave W (A-B-C zigzag), Wave X can be any three-wave shape (4060-4888). Joint shape adjustment is essentially a range consolidation pattern, and in a double three-wave or triple three-wave joint shape adjustment, there can only be one zigzag and one triangle, with the triangle appearing last. Therefore, we can predict the subsequent Waves Y and even Z: if there is a Wave Z, it must be a triangle shape, Wave Y could be a platform shape or a triangle shape. If Wave Y is a triangle shape (which is less likely), it would indicate the end of the weekly fourth wave consolidation, choosing to move up to the weekly fifth wave. If we assume a joint shape adjustment with a large range of 4060-4888, the subsequent market needs to be analyzed specifically.
