Powell's Keynote Speech Analysis:

New Signals from the Federal Reserve and Opportunities in the Cryptocurrency Space. At the Jackson Hole Meeting, Powell sets the tone for the economy and policy in 2025; how should the cryptocurrency sector respond? Economic Tone: Employment: Appears robust, but is actually a "fragile balance." Decreased immigration and supply contraction, with a low unemployment rate (~4%) masking risks.

Inflation: Tariffs driving up prices, core PCE still close to 2.5%-3%. Beware of "expectation-driven secondary inflation!"

The Federal Reserve is caught in a dilemma: tightening hurts employment, while easing may ignite inflation.

Policy Shift: Farewell to the 2020 AIT framework, returning to a flexible inflation target, anchoring expectations is more important.

Policy interest rates are close to neutral (~3.5%-4%), the rate hike cycle has ended, and rate cuts need data deterioration to trigger.

Signals for Cryptocurrency: A high-interest-rate environment temporarily suppresses risk assets, but rising expectations for rate cuts could ignite BTC.

Market Insights: US Dollar: High interest rate differentials support strength, but if employment worsens (non-farm <100,000), expectations for rate cuts will pressure the dollar.

US Stocks: Consumer stocks under pressure, defensive sectors are more appealing.

BTC/Crypto: Highly sensitive to shifts in liquidity. Pay attention to employment data and PCE; if easing signals are clear, BTC may reach new highs!

US Treasuries: 10-year yields fluctuate between 4%-4.5%, neutral rates are rising, and the era of long-term low interest rates has passed.