📈 ETH/BTC Exchange Rate Analysis: Capital Heat Soars, Exchange Rate Severely Undervalued?

🔍 Core Data Observation

✅ ETH exchange funds ratio hits a new high in the cycle (48%), close to the peak level of the 2021 bull market.

✅ ETH/BTC exchange rate is only 0.04, far lower than the 2021 peak of 0.08, with significant undervaluation.

✅ Historical law: After the funds ratio breaks the average of 26%, the ETH/BTC exchange rate often enters an upward channel.

1️⃣ Capital Flow Determines Exchange Rate Strength

The soaring proportion of ETH flowing into exchanges indicates that the market prefers ETH to BTC. History shows that the capital ratio is highly positively correlated with the exchange rate, and the current exchange rate of 0.04 is obviously lagging.

2️⃣ Traditional Capital Boosts ETH Demand

Institutions are deploying ETH through spot ETFs, L2 ecosystems, etc., driving continuous inflows of funds. Compared to BTC, ETH's staking income, DeFi applications, etc. provide additional value-added logic.

3️⃣ Potential Catalysts for Exchange Rate Repair

ETH spot ETF approval (if approved, it will replicate the capital siphon effect of BTC ETF). Layer2 track outbreak (such as Base, Blast and other on-chain activity surge).

⚡ Trading Strategy Recommendations

✅ Long ETH/BTC Exchange Rate:

Target 0.06-0.08 (refer to the exchange rate corresponding to the historical peak of the funds ratio). Stop loss 0.035 (the trend is falsified if it falls below the previous low).

✅ Spot Holding Optimization:

Increase ETH allocation, reduce BTC holdings, and capture exchange rate repair dividends. Pay attention to high-Beta ETH ecosystem tokens (such as L2, Restaking protocols).

✅ Hedge Risks:

If BTC suddenly surges (such as institutional FOMO), be wary of short-term exchange rate pressure.

⚠️ Risk Warning

🔴 Macroeconomic Impact: If the Fed delays interest rate cuts, risk assets may generally decline.

🔴 BTC "Vampire Effect": If BTC dominates the next bull market, the ETH exchange rate may lag behind.

🔴 Regulatory Black Swan: The SEC's dispute over the securities attributes of ETH is still a potential negative.

📌 Conclusion

ETH's capital heat has reached the bull market level, but the exchange rate is still at a low point. Under the support of historical law + fundamentals, a doubling market of 0.04→0.08 is expected.

Key validation point: Can the funds ratio continue to be higher than 40%!