Comprehensive Analysis of Powell's Speech at Jackson Hole and Market Outlook
I. Core Reasons for the Sudden Market Surge
Clear Signal of Interest Rate Cuts
Powell's first hint that "changes in the baseline outlook and risk balance may require adjustments to policy stance" was interpreted by the market as a definitive signal for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with probability soaring from 75% to 93.4%. Historical data shows that speeches at Jackson Hole often mark turning points in the market (e.g., Bitcoin surged 320% after the start of the 2020 rate cut cycle).
Expectations of Dollar Liquidity Strengthen
Expectations of rate cuts triggered a 0.82% plunge in the dollar index to 97.8, with U.S. Treasury yields falling by 10 basis points, and funds accelerating towards high-risk assets. Cryptocurrencies, as "cash flow-less assets," are sensitive to dollar depreciation, with Bitcoin rebounding over 3% that day.
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