Powell's recent remarks have been rather soft, essentially suggesting that the economy is currently facing some challenges and that an interest rate cut isn't ruled out. Market expectations for a September rate cut are extremely high, with the probability already soaring to 89%. Why is this so high? Things like tariffs may not have materialized yet, but their drag on the economy will gradually become more pronounced. Powell also emphasized that interest rate cuts shouldn't be used casually; they must be used at the right time and at key points, otherwise their effectiveness will be inadequate.
The market is currently testing a narrowing range, forming a descending wedge pattern. While there are signs of a rebound, it hasn't yet truly broken through the key level of 118,600. Prices currently have support at the lower edge, but whether they can truly rise depends on subsequent momentum. We previously warned against focusing solely on the interest rate cut hype in May and June, as short-term fluctuations are likely driven by other factors. Now, a September or October rate cut is more likely—the impact of tariffs will gradually become apparent, and economic pressure is expected to intensify.
Therefore, the key focus will be whether the price can truly stabilize and surge higher. Once a key level is broken, the risk will be significantly reduced, and even new upside potential may be opened.
Operationally, consider buying Bitcoin in the 115,000-115,500 range, with the initial target at 117,000 and then 120,000 if it breaks through. Be sure to set a stop-loss.
