Dominance of stablecoins: local and global pictures.

In today's market rise, the dominance of USDT+USDC showed weakness. Let us remind you that we are looking at this specific metric, not the dominance of USDT, which is particularly relevant with the increase in USDC capitalization in 2025.

The metric on Powell's performance has fallen into a sustained downtrend on the 4-hour timeframe. Returning inside the large 'Bullish wedge', our personal expectation is a break, which we mentioned in the chat just yesterday.

The correction of the metric, as we see, has started just from the potential high markers on the daily timeframe. Where the downtrend, by the way, has been maintained since August 13. Although there was a threat of a break.

Let us remind you that we set horizontal levels on this chart a long time ago, even manually (before the launch of the P73 Smart Liquidity Zone indicator), but as you can see - they are still relevant now. There is a reaction from 6.38%, the next target when declining is 5.35%. On the way are trend lines that may serve as support around $5.55 and provide a bounce.

IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT that currently there are no markers of a potential low on the weekly timeframe for the metric. Because how such markers end - was well demonstrated in March 2024 and November-December 2024.

As long as there are no signs of a local low on the weekly and especially the monthly timeframe for this metric, the market is doing well. And since there are local high markers on the weekly timeframe for BTC and ETH, there are only two options:

- these markers will be broken and ignored,

- BTC and ETH will be in a range or correction, while altcoins will come into play.

We would be satisfied with either option 👌

We would like to add separately that the dominance of USDT+USDC, in our estimation, may be reached in December 2025-February 2026. This is a bit unusual, but it fits with the idea that there may be euphoria on expectations of perpetual growth and breaking cycles.

If the forecast works out - it will be a window of opportunity to close all positions, especially on altcoins. By these months, we assume that the dominance of stablecoins may reach a target of 2.94% (the target of a sustained downtrend on the monthly timeframe according to our indicator).