Policy conflicts hurt the market.
The U.S. Supreme Court recently played a trick, pushing key cryptocurrency cases to the SEC. What happened? Regulation became a complete mess:
The SEC and CFTC (the two major financial regulatory agencies in the U.S.) are still arguing heatedly over whether Ethereum is a security;
The California court just ruled that ETH is a security, only to be slapped down by other courts.
This kind of 'passing the buck' operation makes companies unsure whether what they are doing is legal.
What's even more disgusting is that policies have become tools of party struggle:
Trump promised to court cryptocurrency voters by granting amnesty to dark web drug lords (the founder of 'Silk Road') and stuffing Bitcoin into national reserves;
On the Biden side, they are desperately raising taxes and using 'national security' to card mining farm electricity.
Regulatory agencies are caught in between—SEC took the processing time from 8 months to 14 months, and as cases pile up, the market can only stare helplessly.
Policy changes, retail investors get hurt.
In March this year, Trump made a big move: locking 200,000 Bitcoins (accounting for 6% of circulation) seized by the government into the treasury, claiming 'never to sell.' This operation looks like it raises coin prices, but in reality, it's using Bitcoin as a strategic weapon to pave the way for dollar hegemony.
What's harsher is the stablecoin bill:
Requires all stablecoins (like USDT, USDC) to be 100% backed by USD and monitored in real-time by the Federal Reserve;
As a result, even small Southeast Asian vendors using Tether to buy goods have to report to New York.
Essentially, it’s turning global stablecoins into puppets of the dollar.
There are three new bills hiding tricks:
1. Stablecoin issuers: If they issue too many, they will be closely monitored by the Federal Reserve;
2. Bitcoin is classified as a commodity: avoiding securities regulation, facilitating entry for large institutions;
3. Prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing digital dollars: fearing it will overshadow Bitcoin.
On the surface, it's about regulating the market, but in reality, it's turning the crypto world into a 'dollar colony.'
History does not deceive;
Political black swans have long been the engine driving cryptocurrency market trends:
In 2019, Trump threatened to strike Iran, and Bitcoin surged 20% in one day;
In September last year, California's environmental policies clashed with federal ones, causing Ethereum to crash 12% in two days and then rebound 23%.
Now the risks are higher! The Trump family has been exposed to issue their own stablecoin, and the Department of Justice suddenly lets the mixer Tornado Cash go.
Policies change daily, and companies are on edge every day—like the $300 million settlement that CFTC and exchange KuCoin agreed upon, which could be nullified by a single statement from Trump.
The market is like a startled bird.
Recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell just hinted at the 'possible interest rate cut,' and Ethereum surged 15% in one day, while Bitcoin soared to $117,000.
But behind the carnival is all bloodshed:
In 24 hours, $700 million in liquidations occurred, with 160,000 people losing everything;
High leverage meets policy volatility, which is like walking a tightrope on the edge of a cliff.
Funds are also quietly shifting:
Bitcoin's market capitalization percentage has dropped below 60% for the first time in four years;
The Ethereum ETF scale has broken $20 billion, and companies have hoarded $30 billion in ETH.
This indicates that large funds are abandoning Bitcoin and betting on other cryptocurrencies—politics become more chaotic, speculation becomes crazier.
Guide to surviving the retail investors
1. Don't get too excited in the short term: when policies come out, the market is prone to overreact. For example, when ETH plummets, it can be bought in batches, but remember: don't exceed 50% of your position, keep enough bullets to guard against a crash;
2. Keep a close eye on two pitfalls:
When U.S. tech stocks (especially Nasdaq) drop, there is an 80% chance that the cryptocurrency market will follow suit;
A tweet from Trump can cause Bitcoin to fluctuate 5% instantly; it's best to close positions before sleeping;
3. In the long run, three paths:
Compliant exchanges (like Coinbase) benefit from policy dividends;
Bitcoin/Ethereum ETFs have become an entry point for institutions;
It has become a trend for listed companies to hoard coins (like Tesla).
Just a reminder: Decentralized exchanges (DEX) may be seen as a safe haven by retail investors, but algorithmic stablecoins and small coins other than Dai are all traps, touching them is like facing death.
Personal opinion: This is not a market, it's a casino.
Trump locked 200,000 Bitcoins in the treasury, claiming 'never to sell,' but his own 'Trump Coin' first surged by $10 billion and then plummeted by 80%, with the team cashing out $350 million and running away.
—Policy makers themselves are the big players.
Ironically, 27% of the money in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF comes from pensions and university funds. Wall Street gambles with ordinary people's retirement money; if they lose, it's your fault, if they win, they take a commission.
So ordinary people remember: code ideals cannot compete with power games, and the dream of decentralization shatters under the iron fist of politics.
Want to survive? In the policy market, news is more important than technical analysis, and position size is more crucial than faith.
If you feel helpless and confused about trading right now, and want to learn more about the cryptocurrency world and get first-hand cutting-edge information, click on my profile and follow me. Don’t get lost in this bull market!
