When the Federal Reserve 'doves', global funds are looking for an exit – when the K-lines of gold and bitcoin move in sync, those who understand the policy have already placed their orders!
1. Don't get too excited about the interest rate cut! Be careful of the Federal Reserve's 'face change'!
Powell's statement 'Current policy is in a restrictive zone' has driven market expectations for a rate cut in September to over 90%, but don't rush to go all in!
Short-term trap: History proves that interest rate cuts are not a 'cure-all'! When the expectation of rate cuts began in 2024, due to a rebound in inflation, bitcoin fell 20% in a single month. The more enthusiastic the sentiment, the easier it is to be washed out by short-term fluctuations!
Real trading operation: This morning ETH broke $4800, I reduced my position by 30%. Logic: The expectation of interest rate cuts has already priced in the gains, and profit-taking pressure will surely appear before the September FOMC (refer to the sharp crash after the approval of bitcoin ETF in January).
Key reminder: The Federal Reserve talks about 'looking at data', but is actually waiting for next week's PCE inflation and non-farm employment! If inflation rebounds (like core PCE > 2.8%), the crypto market will instantly become a 'meat grinder'.
2. PCE data determines life and death! Gold breaking down = crypto market's charge
Core PCE (the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator) is a nuclear-level signal: Data below expectations = dollar falls = gold and bitcoin soar!
Gold's 'clear signal': The gold price is currently at the end of a triangle consolidation. Once PCE is mild (forecast value 2.6%), a break above $3400 will trigger huge buying – and bitcoin's increase could reach 3 times that of gold (Q1 2025 gold up 16%, bitcoin up 48%).
Opportunities for altcoin pickups: When gold and bitcoin are linked, funds must flow into altcoins! Example: In February, when gold crashed, funds flowed back into the crypto market, and Pi Coin's market value surged into the TOP 50 in a week; if PCE is favorable, the AI sector (like FET, RNDR) and compliant newcomers (like IBET) may replicate the trend.
Personal prediction: As long as PCE ≤ 2.8%, bitcoin will hit $150,000 (21Shares analyst target), with Ethereum targeting $5200! But remember: Close out high leverage positions 1 hour before the data release!
3. Why did gold's surge lead to bigger wins in the crypto market?
Conclusion: Gold and bitcoin are 'complementary allies', not rivals!
Underlying logic: Gold rising = strong risk aversion, but bitcoin has become 'digital gold' – MicroStrategy holds a floating profit of $6 billion, and institutions see it as an anti-inflation tool. Both are 'left-hand' and 'right-hand' allocations of the same pool of funds!
Trump's divine assistance: Promoting 'Trump Coin' + researching bitcoin for reserves, policy endorsement strengthens bitcoin's safe-haven property! In February, tariffs increased, and gold and bitcoin rose together; in August, signals of support for crypto emerged, with bitcoin's single-day increase crushing gold.
The president's holding strategy: 50% bitcoin + 30% ethereum + 20% gold ETF (GLD), both benefiting from correlated gains and hedging against black swans! President Fuqi's team specializes in serving ambitious mavericks! Follow President Fuqi as he leads you through the market's thorns.#ETH创历史新高
