Tonight's Key Points from Powell's Speech: Don't Bet on Rate Cuts, Beware of 'Hawkish Surprises'!
At 10 PM tonight, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Banking Conference, and the market is holding its breath in anticipation. But let me pour some cold water on this: Don't focus your trades on the assumption of a '50 basis point rate cut,' as Powell is likely to go off-script!
From real-time data, ETH is fluctuating around $4300, and the 4-hour candlestick shows strong upward momentum, with the MACD indicator indicating a bullish market. But don't be deceived by appearances—if Powell delivers a hawkish speech tonight, ETH may directly retest the $4000 support level. This is not alarmism; in 2022, his single warning of 'pain' caused the U.S. stock market to plummet by 4%, and the cryptocurrency market was even more severely affected.
Currently, there are differing expectations in the market regarding a Fed rate cut. Although July's non-farm payroll data fell far below expectations, inflation data remains above target levels, and there is internal debate within the Fed regarding the extent of rate cuts. Powell is likely to maintain a 'data-dependent' tone and will not provide clear guidance on rate cuts. This means the market may experience volatility again due to 'expectation gaps.'
More critically, Powell's past speeches indicate he is adept at releasing hawkish signals at pivotal moments. In 2022, he dropped a 'hawkish bomb' during the Jackson Hole conference, leading to a market crash. This year, he may utilize this platform again to pave the way for future policy adjustments.
So, my advice is: Don't put all your chips on rate cuts! If Powell delivers a hawkish speech tonight, ETH may retest $4000, but this could also be an entry opportunity. Of course, you must use tools like options to hedge against risks, preventing extreme market fluctuations.
