I don't think Powell will be hawkish tonight. If he is hawkish tonight, he will face even crazier attacks from Trump.

The Trump camp is not only finding fault with Powell over the building renovation budget but has also been pressuring Cook from Powell's camp to resign recently. Powell is already feeling the pressure, and with a normal thought process, he wouldn't choose to provoke Trump at this moment just for a moment of verbal advantage.

If he is hawkish tonight, Trump will blame Powell for the recent pullback in the US stock market. If I were Powell, I would definitely not be hawkish.