Tonight's market outlook hinges on Powell's attitude, with three possibilities:
1. Clearly signaling a rate cut in September: this would be a major positive, and the market is expected to rebound quickly, but the probability is low, around 20%.
2. Not in a hurry to cut rates, but hinting at future easing: this is considered somewhat positive, market sentiment could be restored, with the highest probability, around 50%.
3. Completely not mentioning rate cuts, or even leaning more hawkish: then one must be cautious, as the market is likely to experience another drop, with a probability of 30%.
Old Jiu's suggestion: for spot trading, consider gradually accumulating on dips, while for contracts, avoid being aggressive and wait for a spike opportunity, patiently await the market's true turning point.
