Blood wash warning? 10 PM tonight! Powell's words determine ETH life and death: 4500 or 4200?

At 10 PM tonight, the eyes of the global cryptocurrency community will be focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting.

ETH is currently stuck at $4280, with the middle line of the Bollinger Bands becoming a dividing line between bulls and bears. The strong resistance zone is above $4523-$4528, while the key support is at $4201.

Will this speech be the fuel for a rocket rally, or the fuse for a bearish missile? Let's hear from Tege as he analyzes it from both technical and news perspectives.

The technical analysis presents two major signals:

Bollinger Bands contraction: The upper and lower bands are narrowing, indicating a directional choice tonight;

RSI neutral but weak: The indicator is at 42.96, not in the oversold zone, and the short-term downward momentum has not been fully released.

Three key points from Powell's speech will directly determine ETH's rise or fall:

Inflation stance: If he emphasizes “interest rate cuts must happen in September,” then if the dollar drops, ETH will surge to 4500; if he reiterates “be cautious of inflation,” then if the dollar rises, ETH will drop below 4200;

Employment data: Mentioning “job stability” is bearish for ETH, while discussing “AI causing unemployment” is bullish;

Policy expectations: Hinting at “multiple interest rate cuts within the year” is a significant bullish signal, while extinguishing rate cut expectations is bearish.

Two scenarios with exclusive operational suggestions from Tege:

Bullish: ETH may fake a drop to wash out weak hands, look to buy near 4280, add positions if it breaks 4350, targeting 4500;

Bearish: ETH may directly break below $4200, recommend taking profits in batches above $4250, and buying back below $4150.

Tonight's volatility may exceed 5%, strictly set stop losses and take profits, and closely monitor the transcript of the Federal Reserve's speech. A grain of news in the crypto world can become a mountain on the technical side!

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