A Critical Night for the Global Financial Market: The Fed's Rate Cut Prelude!!

On August 22, 2025, under the spotlight of the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, Powell's speech will determine the short-term direction of global capital markets.

This "ultimate preview" before the Fed's rate cut is stirring the nerves of the US stock and crypto markets.

The market has entered a highly sensitive period: the Nasdaq index has recorded three consecutive doji candlesticks, as institutions actively create volatility;

Although there are no fundamental changes in the crypto market, Bitcoin is fluctuating around the $113,000 mark, and the contract funding rates remain negative.

Notably, the on-chain circulation of the USDT stablecoin has surged, indicating that major funds are quietly positioning themselves.

Powell is facing dual pressures:

On the political front, the Trump camp continues to push for aggressive rate cuts;

On the economic front, the core PCE index has been below 2.5% for three consecutive months, but the job market is experiencing a structural contradiction of "layoffs in the tech sector and labor shortages in the service sector."

The power struggle within the Fed is becoming more delicate, with three of the seven board members reportedly having ties to the Trump camp.

Three possible paths for tonight:

If a dovish signal is released, Bitcoin is likely to break through the psychological barrier of $50,000;

If a "data-dependent" neutral stance is maintained, a short-term pullback may present a medium-term positioning opportunity;

Although the probability of an extreme hawkish statement is less than 5%, it is enough to trigger significant market volatility.

Regardless of the outcome, crypto assets are becoming a new option for global capital in the guise of "digital gold."

In this financial revolution, the real winners will be the wise who see through the essence of cycles and maintain clarity amid chaos — they know well that every critical point is a repetition and evolution of historical fractals, and the current volatility will ultimately be distilled into the annotations of the era's gifts.

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