This week's macro turning point will officially occur at 10 PM tonight during the Jackson Hole annual meeting. At 10 PM, Powell will speak, and the main topics include interest rate cuts, policy reviews, inflation concerns, labor market valuation, political pressure, and more.
The biggest point of interest is whether the interest rate cut in September can proceed smoothly. Last week, the probability of a rate cut was still over 90%, but this week it has dropped to 71%. Therefore, this speech will indirectly influence the entire market trend from the end of August to early September. During the time before and after the speech tonight, do not think about leveraged trading; hold onto your spot.
Combined with the recent outflow of ETF funds, the big coin has already retraced 10 points since the 14th, which in a bull market is considered a healthy pullback. During this process, there have been continuous handovers from listed companies and institutions.
If tonight old Powell confirms that there will be a rhythm of interest rate cuts in September, it will likely lead to a rebound. Long-term spot players need not worry; institutions and listed companies are hoarding coins like crazy. Today, Ethereum ETFs have ended a net outflow for four consecutive days, with a net inflow of 280 million today, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate is also rising, indicating that the trend is still intact.
From the price perspective, Ethereum touched around 4200 and has now rebounded to around 4300. The first pressure point today is around 4400. Only by breaking and stabilizing at this position can it challenge 4550 or even the previous high of 4800. If 4400 cannot stabilize, it may test the effectiveness of the 4150-4050 support again.
Recently, the big coin has been facing weak rebound pressure, focusing on the vicinity of 115000. Only by breaking and stabilizing at this level can it challenge the strong pressure at 118000; otherwise, it will still test the psychological support at 110000.
For the current market at this node, just look at the support and resistance, there is no need to refer to the wave thinking. The long-term trend remains the most important.
Yesterday, an ancient whale exchanged Bitcoin that it had held for 7 years for Ethereum, worth 235 million. It is also easy to understand the strong performance of Ethereum compared to Bitcoin; since June, the market’s focus has shifted to Ethereum, and it cannot be ruled out that there will be a switch back to Bitcoin later, after all, the consensus on the big coin is the strongest. However, it is obvious that Ethereum currently has more room than the big coin, with expectations of staked ETFs and ongoing purchases from listed companies, creating a stark contrast between the spaces of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Altcoins are still dominated by OKB, which has recently been the biggest star, rising 158% weekly and briefly spiking above 250. Even last night, Xu Mingxing, the founder of OKX exchange, tweeted to be cautious of OKB's volatility. However, with the destruction combined with expectations of being listed, transforming the OKB platform B into a public chain has avoided the risk of being classified as a security, forcing the market to FOMO.
Currently, the logic of speculation in altcoins has also changed significantly; there is no longer a comprehensive surge like before. Only those with capital attention have opportunities for growth. SOL performed well last year, and this year it has shifted to Ethereum, but altcoins are still lying flat without movement. If heavily invested in previously hot altcoins, even though Ethereum is now close to historical highs, it is still on the road to breaking even, just like when the big coin was still at a high of 70,000, but Ethereum washed out to around 1,400. Therefore, participating in this market should not be too stubborn; one must follow the trend. Whichever variety has logic, strength, and capital attention is the one to participate in. Do not feel overly self-satisfied, only to become a runner-up player!
Now is the time for the strong to remain strong; focus on strong indicators and look for participation opportunities. As long as there is logic and signals for capital entering the market, be bold in layout, such as applying for ETF expectations and crypto consortium reserves. These have been the key points highlighted by Crab Boss over the past two months, dividing the market levels, and leaving the rest to time.
Finally, pay attention to tonight's meeting time point; old Powell will speak at 10 PM. I still believe this is an opportunity for those who have not yet boarded the strong altcoins.
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