The Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectations 'Dived' - Countdown of 27 Days from Frenzy to Lying Flat in the Crypto Market
Have the Fed's interest rate cut expectations collapsed? The crypto market is experiencing a 'face-slapping moment.'
Recently, the most magical plot in the crypto circle is the continuous reversal of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations.
The market was initially convinced that there would be a rate cut in September, but the FOMC meeting minutes poured cold water on that belief—two voting members had already voted to cut by 25 basis points in July, and now the predicted market can barely hold onto a 50% majority support.
It's like pursuing a goddess for half a year, only to suddenly find out that she isn't even responding on WeChat. The FOMC meeting minutes released yesterday directly exposed the internal divisions within the Fed; the interest rate range of 4.25%-4.5% remained unchanged, but Waller and Bowman are insistent on a rate cut, which left the market bewildered—where's the promised united front?
The most awkward part now is that the U.S. economy is playing 'The Boy Who Cried Wolf.' Poor employment data keeps sounding the alarm for recession, but the stock market opened flat today; this scene is like a patient who clearly should be hospitalized but insists on going to work. Ironically, the current economic uncertainty is so high that even the Fed's 'old doctor' may have no medicine left—if Powell were to pull out an interest rate cut prescription, it might already be expired.
For the crypto market, this year feels like watching a poorly concluded drama. At the beginning of the year, everyone bet that a rate cut would boost coin prices, but expectations have been repeatedly slapped in the face. Now the industry consensus has turned into: a rate cut is at most a consolation prize; what really matters is whether the AI revolution can drive up the market or if regulators suddenly create some big news.
As I often say, the crypto circle is never short of black swans, but this time the biggest uncertainty might be that even the Fed is feeling its way across the river in the dark.
Finally, let's highlight: the crypto industry has become smarter now and no longer bets everything on rate cuts. If there really is a cut in September, there might be a short-term pulse market, but long-term trends still depend on real capabilities. After all, in this magical realism market, yesterday's truth might just be tomorrow's lie; staying flexible is the way to survive.
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