Continue to maintain the view that interest rates will be cut in September.
The A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are rising, not because of good performance or foreign capital bottom-fishing, but because the weights of state-owned enterprises are being forcibly pushed up. The purpose is very simple: to raise the price first, otherwise, US funds will take the opportunity to buy low.
In the cryptocurrency market, many people panicked during this wave of declines, but it is actually unnecessary. The peak of the bull market has not yet arrived; now is just a cleanup of the shaky chips to make the later surge easier. Platform coins like OKB and BNB soaring ahead of time is because the exchanges understand the market best; they get on the bus first and can slowly distribute later.
My judgment is that from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the beginning of 2026, funds will withdraw from high positions taking advantage of the favorable interest rate cuts, throwing the chips to those who firmly believe that 'interest rate cuts = direct flight'.
Currently, most of the buying power for BTC and ETH relies on low-interest leverage. Once the financing environment tightens, the buying power will not keep up, and the market will naturally be unable to hold up. Interest rate cuts can inject liquidity, but the interest from previous rate hikes is real money that needs to be repaid; someone has to foot the bill.
The US method is very cunning: first raise interest rates to harvest, then collapse others' economies before bottom-fishing; those who cannot be collapsed are lured into buying US stocks and bonds, and then locked in by exchange rates. With two punches down, others cannot escape.
The above is purely nonsense; believe it or not, it's up to you. $BTC