Powell's speech tonight becomes a watershed moment for the market, with the index likely to experience significant volatility. There are still three to five times the opportunity in altcoins over the three-month window, and altcoins are racing to position themselves.
Today's focus should be on event interpretation.
Tonight at 22:00, Powell will speak, with a key focus on his stance regarding the September interest rate cut. The current probability of a rate cut has decreased from 94% to 84%. If his wording is hawkish and suggests a delay in rate cuts, it is likely we will first see a sharp drop; however, the expectations for easing in September-October remain, and after a pullback, a quick recovery is likely, sparking a new round of speculative trading.
Strategy: Control positions before the speech, and determine direction afterward; do not heavily bet against the trend, as going against the trend in a bull market is the easiest way to become fuel for the market.
Next, we need to pay attention to the following directions:
BTC key range: 112600–111900 and 114600–115600, whichever side is effectively broken first will dominate the intraday rhythm.
Market volume: Recent volume has not been able to break out, making the rebound prone to weakness; the daily level of deleveraging is still ongoing, be cautious of stop-loss hunting.
ETF rhythm: There has been a clear divergence in the past two days, with BTC showing net outflows and ETH showing net inflows. If this trend continues tonight, it will strengthen the judgment of "institutional portfolio adjustment + deleveraging."
Major support levels: BTC 110550–109500; ETH 3950–3880; SOL 165–160. All are "pinning positions," and if touched, we expect a rebound rather than a sell-off.
