August 22, 2025 Market Analysis
The most anticipated event right now is tonight's Jackson Hole annual meeting at 10 PM. Since this is the closest meeting to the interest rate cut in September, it is highly likely that there will be statements regarding the next interest rate cut. According to the general market predictions, a rate cut of 25 basis points in September is highly probable. If Powell's speech tonight leans dovishly, the rate cut will be practically confirmed. In fact, Trump has already made sufficient efforts for this rate cut. I have pulled up the performance of the crypto market after past Jackson Hole meetings, showing more increases and fewer decreases.
The recent pullback in the crypto market is also somewhat related to the US stock market. The Nasdaq has pulled back from 21,800 points to 21,100 points, and after reaching a new high, it has turned downward again on the daily chart. Therefore, the pullback of Bitcoin and Ethereum is understandable, especially since the main funds driving Ethereum's rally came from US stocks. As for the larger pullback in Ethereum, it is mainly because it had previously risen too much. For an investment target, volatility is closely related to market capitalization, and Ethereum's market cap can fully accept this volatility. However, I personally believe that the impact of tonight's meeting will be limited, unless clear statements on interest rate cuts are given. In fact, there is still nearly a month until the monetary policy meeting on the 16th-17th of next month, which is filled with many uncertainties.
Returning to the market, it is currently in a sideways trend after a pullback. Bitcoin is temporarily holding at 112,000, while Ethereum is oscillating around the support level of 4,200. Considering the US stock market, the risk of further downside breaking is currently low. The question is when it can continue to rise. The main force behind this wave of rally is US stock funds. Theoretically, the future trend of Ethereum will be more closely linked to the performance of US stocks. Moreover, Ethereum's micro-strategy progress differs from several other coins, as the funds are being genuinely invested, especially by the big players, essentially replicating Bitcoin's micro-strategy. With this backing, there is no fear going forward.
Lastly, I still want to remind everyone that although cryptocurrencies are a highly speculative environment, I still suggest everyone try to follow a value-based approach. For example, the coin that Kanye mentioned yesterday, if you are speculating, it could turn out very badly; future trends can only be predicted to be worse. Finding value support is very important, just like with Ethereum—you need to understand and believe in its value; otherwise, having a speculative mindset can lead to restlessness. Additionally, for coins that have risen too much in the short term, like OKB, which has been asked about a lot recently, I would say if you are already in profit, that’s great. But if you haven't made any money, I would advise against getting in now. This isn’t to say it will definitely drop, but when most people are sharing their profits, the risk of entering is quite high. There are still many opportunities in the crypto space; just find the ones that belong to you.
Thank you for your attention and likes. #杰克逊霍尔会议
