August 23, 2025 Market Analysis
Incredibly, it was oscillating in the 4200 USD range yesterday, and today it refreshed its historical high. The price of Ethereum reached a maximum of 4887 USD, fulfilling the previous promise. As a project with a market cap of 500 billion USD, it surged by 20% in just a few hours, which is shocking. The direct reason for the surge is that yesterday, during his public speech at Jackson Hole, Powell made dovish statements for the first time, indicating that the current downward risk in the U.S. economy is rising, and it is necessary to change the policy stance. This was interpreted by the market as a signal for interest rate cut expectations on the 16th-17th of next month. In fact, after yesterday's speech, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next month exceeded 90%.
There is no doubt that this market trend is influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts, but in my view, the rise of Ethereum is clearly being controlled by major players, and the selling pressure before 4800 has almost been digested. In fact, judging from the trends over the past few months, this market movement of Ethereum definitely has large investors behind it. The FUD from the past year has been a long-term accumulation process, while the funds from the U.S. stock market are more obvious. As for whether the two are related, we can only guess. From the ETH/BTC exchange rate, it is currently slightly more than double the relative bottom. Not considering the price changes of BTC, this increase does not meet the conditions for large-scale distribution, and the market still needs further FOMO.
In terms of price, although Ethereum touched a new high, it has not really broken through. The pressure at 4800 is not only a historical high but also the pressure point from last week's failed breakout. Therefore, based on historical experience, there is a possibility of further pullback and consolidation, because generally, such significant pressure needs to rely on a large bullish candle to break through. However, from the price surge in the past 24 hours, the price influence of Ethereum has been well controlled by major players, so even if there is no breakout in the next few days, the probability of a subsequent breakout is still very high.
Finally, I want to mention two major projects worth paying attention to. One is XPL, which has already launched pre-market trading. Additionally, Binance has allocated 100 million tokens for airdrops to users who invest in USDT wealth management, with another 500 million tokens planned in two more phases, so those with idle USDT can keep an eye on it. The other is WLFI, which will launch on September 1. This stablecoin project by the Trump family launched pre-market trading at 4:30, meaning its launch on Binance's spot market is secured. Currently, the off-market valuation is around 40 billion, which is a bit exaggerated, but keep an eye out for any opportunities; please don’t rush to buy in the secondary market.
Thank you for your attention and likes.#ETH创历史新高
