1. Tonight's speech by Powell needs to be closely monitored, with three core scenarios:
Scenario 1: Clearly signaling a rate cut in September, directly benefiting the market and sounding the horn for a counterattack, probability 20%;
Scenario 2: Stating that it is currently not suitable for a rate cut, but subtly hinting at a future tendency for rate cuts, also constituting a benefit, probability 50%;
Scenario 3: Not signaling any expectations for a rate cut at all, and even strengthening a hawkish stance, the market may face a new round of decline, probability 30%.
Rational response strategy: Prioritize a wait-and-see approach, consider averaging down in spot trading, and only suggest taking positions in contracts when the situation shows a clear reversal.