Macro Storm Eye: The deadly game between policy and market
Interest Rate Cut Expectations Suddenly Cool
The probability of a Fed rate cut in September plummeted from 92% to 74% within a week, the dollar index surged to 98.60, a two-week high, clearly pressuring risk assets.
Key Drivers: Goolsbee's hawkish statements strengthen tightening expectations, Trump's sudden speech disrupts risk-averse sentiment, funds accelerate withdrawal from high-risk assets.
Historical Warning: After Powell's annual Jackson Hole speech, the S&P 500 averaged a nearly 2% drop, and U.S. Treasury yields jumped 21 basis points.
U.S. Stock Market Chain Collapse
The S&P 500 has fallen for five consecutive days, tech stocks have collectively collapsed, market liquidity has dropped to freezing point, if Powell is hawkish tonight (70% probability), cryptocurrencies may face a chain sell-off.
BTC Battlefield: 112,800 becomes the 'death high ground' for the bulls
Liquidation Heatmap Decoding
Key Offensive and Defensive Line
Liquidation Resistance: 113,600-115,200 (whale ambush zone)
Life and Death Support: 107,800-109,400 (breaking = panic selling)
ETH Predicament: The 'Bull Grave' trap at 4260
The liquidation map hides dangers
Current Price 4260: In a dense area of short liquidation, a short-term rise may trigger short squeezes, attracting retail investors to chase long (which is actually a good opportunity for institutions to offload) [^User's original text].
Upper Danger Zone: 4300-4400 has accumulated 198 million short positions, if broken, it will push the price up, but the pressure of pledge unlocks (such as AVAX, ARB massive unlocks) suppresses the rebound space.
Fatal Bottom Line: 3800 is a heavy disaster area for long stop-losses, breaking will trigger a panic sell-off.
Volatility Amplifier: ETH and BTC have a correlation of 89%, but leverage is 37% higher, tonight's volatility may exceed BTC.
Sniping Strategy: Control through stillness, hunt volatility
Reversal Signal (Low Probability):
BTC breaks through 116,000 → chase long to 118,000 (driven by short covering)
ETH breaks through 4,350 → chase long to 4,450-4,500 (squeeze rally)
Wyckoff Institutional Script: The ultimate harvest in the distribution phase
Volume-Price Divergence: Price rises while trading volume shrinks, and increases during price drops, revealing exhaustion of bullish momentum.
Spring Effect: False breakout after multiple tests of support levels, inducing retail investors to buy the dip and then reverse sell-off.
Sentiment Fuel: Retail investors' panic selling becomes a source of institutional liquidity, tonight Powell's speech is the best harvesting catalyst.
Warning: Powell's 'pain theory' in 2022 caused the S&P to plummet 12% in a single month, and the current U.S. stock valuation reaches a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.5 (the highest since 2000), any hawkish signal will trigger a leverage meltdown.
Survival Rule: The wisdom of gaming by retreating to advance
Avoid Greed: Avoid the danger zones of 113,600-115,200 and 4,300-4,400, do not bet on one-sided market trends.
Good Defense: Strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline, control position within 5%, prevent chain liquidation.Borrowing Strength: If Powell unexpectedly turns dovish (30% probability), quickly follow the shorts to cover, in and out fast.
The market will eventually return to its essence: retail blood builds the whale throne, tonight may witness a 'one shot destroys truck' style capital slaughter.
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