About $LDO: My Position Logic and Trading Strategy

Friends often ask me, "Has LDO moved?" My answer is always, "No." However, there's an interesting phenomenon: when LDO surged to $1.60 a while ago, everyone tacitly "hid themselves." Now, with only a slight pullback, many are frantically asking for trading advice.

The real reason people ask me this is because they want a clear direction. Here's a basic analysis: With our entry price of $0.96, even if we exit now, we'll still have a profit of nearly 30 points. Of course, we could also set a stop-loss at the cost point and use our existing profits to gamble for greater returns—but we must be aware that doing so also carries the risk of profit-taking or even zero returns.

My strategy is clear: I won't exit until it reaches $3. I'll either take profits near $3 or exit when the stop-loss at the cost point is triggered. This conviction stems from three core principles I had in mind when I first entered the market:

1. Favorable policy regarding the "non-securitization" of pledges

The SEC has previously signaled that pledge services themselves are not securities. This is a key positive for the entire ETH staking sector. It's crucial to understand that ETH staking is fundamental to the security of the Ethereum network. If it were defined as a security, the entire ecosystem would face significant risks. The most direct beneficiary of this "safety check" for staking is Lido, a leading player in the sector.

2. Monopoly-level market share barriers

Lido currently holds over 30% of ETH staking, and the circulating supply of its issued stETH has exceeded 10 million, corresponding to a market value exceeding $30 billion. This scale is not expected to be shaken in the short term: while competitors like Rocket Pool and Frax ETH are catching up, the gap with Lido remains a significant chasm. While some have raised concerns about Lido's centralization risks, the reality is that it has become a core infrastructure layer of ETH and even has a profound impact on network security.

3. LDO's Trading Logic and Value Potential

Remember that LDO is essentially a "high-beta" ETH asset—with each round of ETH strength, LDO tends to rise faster. In a bull market, the high volatility of this leading protocol is precisely its advantage. More importantly, Lido's revenue model is clear: it earns 10% of staking rewards, creating a tangible cash flow for the protocol, though it hasn't yet been fully translated into token value. If a token buyback or burn mechanism is activated in the future, its valuation logic will shift.$ETH $ETH