The crypto market is like a crazy roller coaster without an end. Just when you think you've figured out the track direction and can enjoy the journey steadily, a sudden policy twist or an unexpected geopolitical news can make prices suddenly perform a 'free fall' or 'soar to the sky' stunt. And ETH is undoubtedly the 'first-class seat' that gets adrenaline pumping the most on this roller coaster.
Last night, ETH struggled to survive in the 'crevice' of bullish forces, and the game between bulls and bears hides many intriguing mysteries.
Describing last night's ETH movement as 'twisted' is quite fitting. In the 15-minute timeframe, the price bounced back and forth in the $4200 - $4260 range, resembling two evenly matched boxers testing each other in the ring, neither willing to reveal a flaw easily. Ultimately, the price closed up 0.16%, but the Bollinger Bands contracted like a tightly stretched string, clearly indicating that both bulls and bears are secretly accumulating power, holding back for a big move; the short-term direction hasn't reached the 'showdown' moment yet.
The impact of key events is immediate. A statement from Federal Reserve official Harker saying 'no rate cut in September' was like a bucket of cold water poured directly on the hot market, instantly cooling investors' risk appetite; however, the news of the 'ceasefire agreement' acted like a timely 'lifesaver', preventing ETH from breaking below the support level of $4200, with buyers below acting as a group of determined 'buying heroes', steadily supporting the price.
When the US stock market opened lower, ETH also plummeted to $4236, but quickly rebounded. This shows that 'crypto players' are becoming increasingly rational about their correlation with traditional markets—daring to bottom fish when prices fall and not blindly chasing highs when they rise.
Technical signals are like 'fighting', how will ETH move today? It all depends on the mood of these two 'big shots'.
Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting is undoubtedly a 'super variable for the crypto market'. If he hints at a 'rate cut in September' (with the current market expectation at 70%), ETH is likely to break through the resistance level of $4300 and even rally towards the daily resistance level of $4380. Just think about the case where ETH surged 12% in one day after the July CPI data was released; the expectation of a rate cut is simply an 'excitement factor for the crypto market'. But if he plays it ambiguous and non-committal, the market may continue to 'lie flat', with ETH oscillating in the $4200 - $4300 range, and both bulls and bears continue to 'argue'.
The correlation with the US stock market is also crucial. When tech stocks rise, ETH often rises too; when tech stocks fall, ETH is likely to 'play dead'. Recently, the correlation between ETH and the Nasdaq has reached as high as 0.8 (1 being perfectly positively correlated), making the US stock market a 'barometer' for the crypto market.
In terms of operational advice, short-term players can try 'shearing wool', while medium-term players should 'wait for the wind to come'.
Short-term players can sell high and buy low within the range, 'shearing wool' between $4200 - $4280. If it breaks through $4280, they can enter a long position with a light load and set the stop-loss at $4240. Key signals to watch: If the 1-hour RSI breaks 60 and the price stabilizes above $4260, then look directly towards $4300; if it falls below $4200, don't hesitate to run away, don't get attached to the so-called 'floor price'.
Medium to long-term players must always be vigilant about risks; the Federal Reserve and geopolitical events are the 'time bombs' buried in the crypto market. In the Federal Reserve's policies, the expectation of a rate cut is 'honey', but if it suddenly turns 'hawkish', for example, if inflation rebounds, ETH may face a drop of more than 20%.
Geopolitical conflicts cannot be underestimated. If the situation in the Middle East or the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates, it will trigger market risk aversion, and crypto assets will often be the first to be impacted.
Follow Xing Ge, and avoid the slaughter knife, snatch food from the tiger's mouth! Let's eat the next piece of meat together!!