BTC Market Overview

Bitcoin is currently consolidating around $113,000, with the short-term market lacking direction. Recent fluctuations are mainly due to funds waiting for further signals from the Federal Reserve. Some large holders have already made significant reductions in their positions, contributing to the repeated washout pattern in the market.

Macroeconomic Background

Tonight at 22:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole conference, and the market generally expects that the content will provide important guidance for the September interest rate meeting. Currently, there is a clear divergence in the market regarding rate cuts:


Some viewpoints believe that a rate cut will begin in September.

Another view is that the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain high interest rates and delay the pace of easing.

Moreover, with the U.S. elections approaching, political pressure is also increasing. Former President Trump openly urges the Federal Reserve to shift towards easing, and some candidates hold the same position. However, current officials remain cautious and have not released clear signals.

Market Game

Recent news suggests that Huang Licheng holds approximately $140 million in BTC long positions, currently facing a floating loss of nearly $9.81 million. The pressure from such large funds reflects the uncertainty of market fluctuations, but it cannot be taken as a standalone basis for a market reversal.

Three potential scenarios tonight:

Clearly releasing a rate cut signal → The market would react positively, and BTC is expected to have about a 20% chance of starting a new upward trend.

Implying a potential future rate cut → Generally positive, and short-term may drive the probability of risk assets rising to about 50%.

Completely denying rate cut expectations / Strengthening hawkish stance → The market will be under pressure, and BTC may have about a 30% chance of further decline.


Operational Suggestions

Short-term: Before Powell's speech, it is advisable to remain on the sidelines and avoid chasing prices or panic selling.

Mid-term: If a pullback occurs, gradually positioning remains the better strategy. Once policy signals are clear, large funds will re-enter, and market direction will gradually clarify.


Summary: The current sideways fluctuation essentially indicates that the market is waiting for policy guidance after Powell's speech. The risk of short-term volatility is increasing, and rationally controlling positions while waiting for key signals to emerge is the more prudent approach.

Want to get on board this bull market? Temporary efforts will not keep you in the loop! Find someone knowledgeable to guide you; starting quickly and avoiding pitfalls is the real deal.

Continue to monitor: $SOL $ETH $BTC BIO MYX UMA SKL MERL

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