Many are concerned: after the rate cut in September, will Dogecoin (DOGE) set a new historical high? According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is as high as 81.2%. A rate cut could stimulate risk investments, thereby driving up the cryptocurrency market, especially the price of Dogecoin (DOGE).
Dogecoin network is performing strongly
Dogecoin's miner hash rate is close to historical highs, indicating strong stability of the network. The network pressure index (considering transaction fees, hash rate fluctuations, and active supply fluctuations) is low, suggesting that the current network maintains a good balance between economy, security, and activity.
Based on price models and CVDD adjustments, Dogecoin's price is expected to break through $0.54 and may even challenge $1. However, the report also warns that due to the rising market leverage, investors need to be cautious of potential rapid declines and liquidation risks.
Dogecoin Price Trend Analysis
Since the lows and highs of October 2023, Dogecoin has gradually risen, but the price has been flat for nearly 7 months, with the fluctuation range considered a stage of accumulation, similar to historical long-term consolidations followed by significant increases.
Traditionally, the rise of Dogecoin is usually closely related to Bitcoin's halving reaction 240-260 days later and its subsequent follow-up after reaching new highs. However, in the current cycle, these factors have not played a role. Despite Bitcoin repeatedly breaking highs, Dogecoin has failed to follow suit.
To trigger the rise of Dogecoin, key conditions have not yet been met: it is necessary to wait until Ethereum (ETH) and the Russell 2000 index reach historical new highs. However, the Russell 2000 index is currently attempting to break through but has been unsuccessful, and the dominance of the market has also decreased, which may limit the upward potential of altcoins.
Only if Ethereum (ETH) and the Russell 2000 index break key resistance levels can Dogecoin (DOGE) potentially see an increase; otherwise, it will remain in range-bound fluctuations. Currently, market participation is low, with Google Trends and video view data showing insufficient retail investor enthusiasm.
Currently, Dogecoin's price is $0.21757, with weak market momentum, and it has not yet entered the 'altcoin season'. Unless Ethereum and the Russell 2000 index break historical highs, Dogecoin may continue to maintain a sideways consolidation. Whether DOGE can break historical highs still requires attention to market signals and changes in the macroeconomic environment.
