"The crypto market is like a never-ending roller coaster - you think you’ve grasped the trend and can sit securely, but a policy shift or geopolitical news can make prices 'plummet' or 'skyrocket' in an instant. And ETH is the most thrilling 'first class' on this roller coaster."

Last night, ETH struggled to survive in the 'narrow gap', with the bull-bear competition hiding secrets.

Last night's ETH performance can only be described with the word 'twisted':

  • 15-minute level: Prices are repeatedly bouncing in the $4200-$4260 range, resembling two boxers testing each other in the ring, ultimately closing up 0.16%, but the Bollinger Bands have narrowed like a fine string, indicating that both bulls and bears are holding back big moves, and the short-term direction has not yet 'revealed itself'.

  • Key events:

    • Federal Reserve official Harmack's statement of 'no rate cut in September' directly doused the market with cold water, and risk appetite cooled instantly; however, the 'ceasefire agreement' was like a 'lifesaver', preventing ETH from breaking below the $4200 support, with buying pressure below acting like a 'white knight' supporting the price.

    • When the U.S. stock market opened lower, ETH fell to $4236, but quickly rebounded, indicating that 'crypto players' are becoming increasingly rational about the linkage to traditional markets - they dare to buy the dip when prices fall and do not chase highs when prices rise.

Technical signals 'clashing':

How will ETH perform today? It largely depends on the expressions of these two 'big shots'.

1. Jackson Hole meeting: Powell's words can send ETH soaring or crashing.

Tonight's speech by Powell is definitely a 'super variable for the crypto market.'

  • If he hints at 'September rate cuts' (current market expectation probability 70%), ETH may directly break through the $4300 resistance level, even rushing towards $4380 (daily resistance level) - referencing the case where ETH surged 12% in a single day after the July CPI data was released, the expectation of rate cuts is the 'stimulant for the crypto market.'

  • If he plays Tai Chi and makes ambiguous statements, the market may continue to 'lie flat', with ETH oscillating in the $4200-$4300 range, and both bulls and bears continuing to 'pull each other.'

2. U.S. stock market linkage: Tech stocks rise, ETH rises; tech stocks fall, ETH 'plays dead'.

Recently, the correlation between ETH and the Nasdaq has reached as high as 0.8 (1 being perfectly positively correlated), making the U.S. stock market the 'weather vane' for the crypto market.

Operation suggestion: Short-term 'scalp', medium-term 'wait for the wind to come'.

1. Short-term players

  • High sell and low buy in the range: 'shear wool' back and forth between $4200-$4280, break above $4280 and you can take a small long position (stop loss set at $4240);

  • Key signal: If the 1-hour RSI breaks 60 and stabilizes at 4260, look directly at 4300; if it falls below 4200, it's time to run (don't cling to the 'floor price').

2. Medium to long-term players

Risk warning: The Federal Reserve and geopolitical events are the 'time bombs' of the crypto market.

  • Federal Reserve policy: Rate cut expectations are 'honey', but if it suddenly turns 'hawkish' (for example, inflation rebounds), ETH could plummet by 20%+;

  • Geopolitical conflicts: The situation in the Middle East and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will trigger market risk aversion, with crypto assets being the first to feel the impact.

To be honest: there is no 'guaranteed profit' in the crypto market, only 'controlling risks to survive longer.' Want to follow me in real-time to watch the market and catch the trend? Follow Qingyao , and let me take you on the 'crypto roller coaster'! #BNB创新高