"The crypto market has no 'universal key', only the survival rule of 'responding to circumstances'. Cycle rules are the map, macro policies are the weather — the map can guide, but when facing a storm, you still need to read the clouds and recognize the sky."

The 2021 bull market: A 'perfect conspiracy' of cycles and macro.

During the bull market in 2021, many people focused only on the cycle rules of 'the year after Bitcoin halving', thinking the bull market should peak. But looking back, what really drove the market was the Federal Reserve's 'crazy money printing' — with interest rates down to 0, printing $120 billion monthly, the market had so much money that Bitcoin naturally became a 'dual choice of hedging + speculation'.

But by the end of 2021, the winds changed suddenly: inflation soared to 7% (a 40-year high), unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, and the Federal Reserve's dot plot showed unanimous support for rate hikes. The market quickly understood: 'The grand feast of liquidity is coming to an end.' What happened next? The cycle rules (the year after halving) and the macro shift (interest rate hike expectations) both hit the brakes simultaneously, causing the bull market to 'hard land'.

Qingyao's view: Cycle rules are the 'long-term script', but macro policies are the 'improvised lines' — when both are in sync, the market will explode; when hedging, the market will be tangled.

Current situation in 2024: The cycle says 'a bear market is coming', macro calls 'keep partying'.

Now many people are shouting 'a bear market is coming', still citing 'the year after halving'. But they overlook a key point: the macro environment is completely opposite to 2021.

At the end of 2021: The Federal Reserve had just started raising interest rates, and the market expected a 'tightening macro cycle';

In 2024: The Federal Reserve has entered a rate cut cycle, with rate predictions dropping from 5.25% down to 3.5%, even stating 'no rate hikes before 2026'.

Translating into simple terms: 2021 was 'the pump at maximum', 2024 is 'the faucet slowly being turned on' — as long as liquidity remains, market sentiment won't completely collapse.

Case comparison:

In 2017: The Federal Reserve was reducing its balance sheet (money became less), but Bitcoin still rose to $20,000 (cycle rules overriding policies);

In 2021: Cycle rules (the year after halving) + macro shift (interest rate hike expectations) both acted simultaneously, causing the bull market to 'crash'.

Conclusion: The market in 2025 will be more complex than in 2021 — cycle rules are 'calling for a stop', macro policies are 'refilling', and the market will fall into 'confused oscillation'.

2025 operational guide: Three types of players, three ways of living.

1. Cycle faction ('discipline above all')

Logic: Firmly believe that 'the year after halving = the end of the bull market', and do not gamble with market sentiment.

Operation: Reduce positions in batches when Bitcoin and Ethereum hit new highs; clear out or lighten positions in altcoins (this round of altcoins is clearly weak; don't hold on to false hopes).

Advantage: Will not be trapped by the illusion of 'extended bull markets', securing profits.

Risk: If macro policies really extend the bull market, the last wave of increase may be missed.

2. Macro faction ('patiently waiting for the wind to come')

Logic: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is not over; liquidity easing can still support the market.

Operation: Long-term holding of Bitcoin and Ethereum (high certainty); moderate allocation in altcoins, but positions should not exceed 30%; wait for the Federal Reserve to signal rate hikes (such as a change in the dot plot) before clearing positions.

Advantage: May benefit from the extended bull market (for example, another wave in 2024-2025).

Risk: If the cycle rules come true ahead of time (for example, altcoins crashing affecting market sentiment), the drawdown may be larger.

3. Mixed faction ('adults don't make choices')

Logic: Trust both cycle and macro, but not entirely — use positions to hedge uncertainty.

Operation:

Base position (50%): Long-term holding of Bitcoin and Ethereum (across cycles);

Short position (30%): Speculating on rebounds in altcoins, quick in and out;

Macro position (20%): Wait for changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut rhythm (such as pausing rate cuts) before adjusting.

Advantage: Whether the cycle rules win or the macro policies win, one can still 'drink the soup'.

Risk: Requires more frequent monitoring of the market, with high psychological demands.

"Is the crypto market in 2025 the 'final judgment' of cycle rules or the 'defiance of macro policies'? The answer is not in the candlestick chart, but in your actions — do you want to be the 'discipline faction's' cold-blooded killer, the 'patience faction's' long-term winner, or the 'mixed faction's' flexible old fox? Let me know your choice in the comments; next issue will reveal 'how to hedge cyclical and macro risks with options!'"

I am Qingyao, here to break down the crypto market for you using 'plain language + hard logic'. Follow me to avoid taking three years of detours.