Good morning, brothers. BTC is still hovering around $113,000.
Recently, the whale traders have been frequently manipulating the market, and some large holders have been forced to cut losses. The core reason behind this is that the market is waiting for signals of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
Currently, there is a significant divide in the market:
Some believe there will be no rate cut, while others firmly believe a rate cut is imminent.
The real big capital will wait until the signals are clear before re-strategizing.
Tonight at 10:00 PM, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak, and the market is likely to experience significant volatility.
The market will assess whether a rate cut will be initiated in September or if high interest rates will be maintained.
As is well known, Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve to ease policies to stimulate the economy, and candidates for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman are also calling for rate cuts. However, current officials maintain a tough stance and are not easily swayed.
Additionally, it is worth noting that:
Huang Li-cheng currently holds long positions worth $140 million, but is facing an unrealized loss of $9.81 million.
When these major players start to lose money, or even face liquidation, it often indicates that the market is brewing a reversal.
Tonight, there may be three possible scenarios:
①: Powell signals clearly → Rate cut in September, directly bullish, signaling the start of a rebound, probability about 20%
②: No rate cut for now, but hints at future rate cut expectations → Moderately bullish, market starts early, probability about 50%
③: Strong hawkish stance, no hints of rate cuts → The market may drop again, probability about 30%
Rationally speaking, there is no need to panic and exit now; instead, we should gradually buy the dip and patiently wait for a reversal in the situation.
