Fundamentals: The globally anticipated Jackson Hole global central bank meeting is about to take place today, where Powell will deliver a speech titled 'Economic Outlook and Framework Review' at 10 PM Beijing time on Friday. This year's meeting theme is set as 'The Transforming Labor Market: Demographics, Productivity, and Macro Policy'.
Several major investment banks expect Powell to partially reverse the Flexible Average Inflation Target (FAIT) policy introduced at the 2020 meeting, rebalancing the Fed's dual mandate on employment and inflation. In simpler terms, the Fed may return to a more traditional 'dual deviation' target on employment (focusing on both underperformance and overheating), while abandoning the 'average inflation target' and adopting 'flexible inflation targeting' as the main strategy.
Market focus is on how he evaluates the signs of weakness in the US labor market shown in the July employment report, and whether this data is sufficient to prompt the Fed to start a rate cut cycle at the September meeting. The second focus is whether the framework reboot means prioritizing anti-inflation while temporarily placing employment in a secondary position. Does this imply that the Fed will only cut rates gradually, rather than suddenly opening the floodgates? This is likely a phenomenon that Trump does not wish to see.
According to the interest rate observer provided by Investing.com, the probability of a rate cut in September is 72.9%, significantly lower than the previous 85% and 90%, indicating a cooling in market expectations for rate cuts.
Market Performance: NQ100 closed down 0.42%, continuing to be under pressure from the 30-day moving average at 23400; Bitcoin closed at 112462, down 1.54% for the day, giving back all gains from the previous day and briefly dropping below the previous day's low of 112301; Ethereum closed down 2.56%, giving back part of the previous day's gains but still remaining above 4200, slightly stronger than Bitcoin.
Technical Analysis:
The ETH daily level has completed the A-B-C three-wave adjustment, with 4H focusing on the trend line pressure near 4300. Combined with BTC's performance: BTC daily level is under pressure from the 60-day moving average of 114650, showing an overall weak trend. The 4H auxiliary MACD shows a bullish divergence phenomenon, leading to a hypothesis that ETH's performance is relatively strong, and BTC4H has a rebound demand, which will test the daily resistance of 114650, thereby driving ETH to break through 4300 and continue to test the Fibonacci ratios of the A-B-C adjustment wave (4794-4060) at 4340 (0.382), 4427 (0.5), and 4513 (0.618) as one or two resistance levels.
Operational Thoughts: The key point is whether the 4300 trend line breaks. If it breaks and holds above 4300, the rebound targets are 4380-4430; if the pressure continues to be effective, it will still test the support below at 4110 -4060.
