8.22 BTC This week's key closing line, is it the start of a bear market or the continuation of a bull market?
BTC price fluctuated between $113,381 and $113,562, about 10%-15% down from the historical high of $124,481 on August 13. This correction reflects short-term fatigue in the market, but the overall trend remains bullish, with buyers quickly stepping in during the pullback, showing strong demand support. In the past week, BTC fell about 1.5%, while trading volume increased by 34% to $48 billion, indicating enhanced market activity, despite a slowdown in short-term momentum.
From a technical analysis perspective, BTC's trend is upward in the medium to long term. The 200-day moving average (SMA) remains bullish, hovering around $103,250, serving as macro support. The 50-day SMA is also on an upward trend, but the 20-day SMA is flattening, suggesting a short-term neutral stance. Key support levels include $111,900, $107,400, and $105,200; if broken, it may trigger further downward movement towards the psychological level of $100,000. Resistance levels are the historical high of $124,533 and $118,145.
In terms of indicators, the RSI (21 periods) is at 46.86, below the neutral line of 50, indicating seller dominance; the MACD is -766.13, the signal line is -631.35, with negative histogram values, confirming bearish momentum. The ADX (21 periods) is at 25.31, with trend strength increasing, but the direction is negative.
The StochRSI shows oversold conditions, which may trigger a short-term rebound, but is limited within the overall bearish framework. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, with prices approaching the lower band and increasing volatility. A Fibonacci retracement indicates the 0.618 level at $114,049 as the current battleground; if broken, it will expose the 0.5 level at $111,058. Friends who are not satisfied with recent market operations can consult btc0796 to connect with me for market discussions.
Operation Suggestions:
Short BTC at 114,500-115,000, target around 113,000-110,000. Stop-loss at 116,000.
Short ETH at 4,340-4,380, target around 4,150-4,000. Stop-loss at 4,420.