The Coinbase Premium Index for Bitcoin has now turned negative, reflecting diminishing spot demand in the United States along with the risk of price declines, despite derivative leverage remaining optimistic.
The divergence between weak spot buying and high leverage can easily trigger significant volatility, especially as large liquidity zones are forming around sensitive price levels.
MAIN CONTENT
The negative Coinbase Premium Index indicates that Bitcoin's spot demand in the United States is weakening, even though derivatives remain optimistic.
The amount of Bitcoin sold by miners has significantly decreased but is not enough to create a noticeable upward price effect.
The large liquidity zones around $112K and $116K play a decisive role in Bitcoin's short-term trend.
What does a negative Coinbase Premium Index mean?
The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index turning negative indicates that spot demand in the United States is declining, even as the derivatives market still shows optimistic sentiment.
This indicator reflects a shift of capital away from the spot market and sometimes signals the risk of short-term corrections if no new demand emerges.
CryptoQuant Report, August 2025
The Coinbase Premium Index measures the price difference at Coinbase compared to international exchanges like Binance. When this index is negative, Bitcoin's price on Coinbase is lower than on other exchanges, often due to US investors selling more than buying. This is a sign that the major trading platform in the United States is facing short-term selling pressure.
At the same time, this often makes market sentiment more cautious, although the derivatives market continues to record a positive Funding Rate, indicating that leveraged traders still expect prices to rise.
Why is there a divergence between the spot and derivatives markets?
The Bitcoin spot market is cautious while derivatives contracts record a positive Funding Rate, signaling that leveraged traders still expect a bullish trend.
This divergence is not uncommon in the market and has appeared on many occasions before significant price movements. When spot demand is weak but derivative leverage is very high, the risk of liquidation increases, potentially leading to sudden price volatility.
Many analysts believe that if spot capital does not recover soon while derivatives continue to open large positions, Bitcoin could face dual pressure both technically and psychologically, easily leading to deeper price drops when leveraged orders are liquidated en masse.
What does the decrease in the amount sold by miners mean?
The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) of Bitcoin has dropped to -0.51 after plummeting 130% in one day, indicating that miners are selling less than the yearly average.
Reducing selling pressure from miners often helps decrease short-term supply, but to create upward momentum, additional new capital inflow is needed.
Glassnode Report, August 2025
A low MPI means that the amount of Bitcoin miners transferring from wallets to exchanges has decreased. Theoretically, this limits immediate supply on the market and could help reduce downward pressure. However, in reality, even though selling has decreased, the price of Bitcoin has not reacted significantly upward.
Investors tend to wait for clearer signals from inflows before betting on a bullish trend. This is evidenced by the fact that even when network indicators suggest undervaluation, large buy orders have not yet appeared strongly in the spot market.
NVM Ratio decline: Is Bitcoin undervalued relative to network activity?
The NVM Ratio decreased by 11.1% to 2.73, indicating that the gap between market capitalization and actual network activity on Bitcoin is widening.
NVM Ratio (Network Value to Metcalfe Ratio) compares Bitcoin's market capitalization with the level of network activity. A low value of this ratio often implies that the asset is cheap relative to user growth or transaction volume.
However, statistics show that this index is effective at a medium or long-term outlook rather than providing immediate bullish signals. The appeal of the low valuation story gradually attracts value investors, but to draw in large new capital flows, stronger signals from the spot market are needed.
Where is the Bitcoin price relative to technical trends?
At the time of the update, Bitcoin is testing the resistance level with the MACD indicator signaling a bearish trend, increasing the likelihood of a downward reversal.
The MACD crossing below the signal line aligns with signs that bears are gaining the upper hand in the short term.
TradingView, 21/08/2025
According to technical analysis, if the price breaks below the $111.9K zone, the bullish structure will completely change, opening the risk of a deeper correction. Conversely, there is still an opportunity for bulls to maintain their position as long as Bitcoin stays above this important resistance threshold.
The next few sessions are deemed extremely sensitive, as without strong buying power or supportive news, the bearish trend will further consolidate.
What effect do large liquidity zones have on Bitcoin volatility?
The liquidity map on Binance shows two large liquidity clusters around $112K and $116K, which are key points for short-term price momentum.
If the price drops significantly below $112K, the likelihood of mass liquidations will increase; conversely, a strong recovery above $116K could force selling positions to be squeezed.
See nGlass Heatmap, August 2025
These zones concentrate a large number of leveraged orders – areas where cascade liquidation can easily occur when prices fluctuate suddenly. Investors should pay particular attention, as this is a region that could determine whether Bitcoin maintains high price levels or falls into a new strong correction.
What pressures are overshadowing Bitcoin's short-term trend?
The Bitcoin market structure is weakening as spot demand from institutions declines, but derivative leverage and the low valuation story still remain.
Although the amount sold by miners has decreased and blockchain data shows long-term value signals, the downward trend in the short term still prevails. If new capital does not appear, Bitcoin could break the $111K support, triggering the next deep drop, especially in an environment of increased liquidation pressure.
This situation requires investors to be cautious and employ thorough risk management strategies to guard against sudden price drops stemming from market sentiment volatility and strong liquidations at sensitive price levels.
Frequently asked questions about the current Bitcoin trend
What does the negative Coinbase Premium Index signal for the Bitcoin market?
The negative index indicates that the Bitcoin spot price in the United States is lower than on other exchanges, confirming that spot demand is weakening, which could open up the risk of a price drop without new capital inflows.
What does a decreasing MPI indicate for miners?
A low MPI indicates that miners have reduced their selling, alleviating supply pressure on the market, but it is not enough to trigger a strong upward trend without new capital flows.
How does the divergence between spot and derivatives affect the market?
When spot is weak but derivatives remain optimistic, the risk of strong volatility and mass liquidations increases; the market will experience significant fluctuations when there is a news shock or large capital flows.
Does the decrease in NVM Ratio have significance for value investors?
A low ratio indicates that Bitcoin is attractively priced in the medium-to-long term, but does not support immediate bullish signals for day traders.
How does a bearish MACD affect Bitcoin price action?
The bearish MACD indicator reinforces the potential for a technical correction of Bitcoin if there are no strong supporting factors in the short term.
What impact do large liquidity zones around $112K and $116K have?
This is a zone that can cause significant volatility, especially when the price breaks through or recovers above these levels due to the concentration of leveraged orders.
What to do to mitigate risks during this period?
Investors need to manage risks strictly, not open large positions, combine stop losses, and continuously update market data from reputable sources.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-giang-co-spot-yeu-futures-manh/
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