In the crypto space, which is full of opportunities and challenges, many people are seeking the secrets to profit.

I have always strongly recommended significantly increasing or decreasing positions to enhance returns and avoid risks. This method is entirely different from those who remain fully invested, blindly optimistic, and can only leave their outcomes to fate after buying.

Position management is certainly not a simple allocation of funds; its implementation is based on in-depth analysis of the macro economy and a solid accumulation of precise judgments on cryptocurrency market trends.

In fact, position management is also widely known as timing. After years of experience in the crypto space, I finally feel that I have enough experience and insights to write an article on how to time the market accurately in the crypto space. This can be seen as a reward for my years of persistent effort.

I am not someone who is diligent and persistent about everything. In my studies, basketball, and instrument learning, I often have a fleeting interest and quickly lose motivation; I can be considered a typical "slacker." But in the matter of investing in the crypto space, I have persisted for over a decade and have always given it my all.

Moreover, starting in the second half of 2023, I began sharing my investment experiences and insights on Zhihu, and I have now written nearly 2 million words. This can be considered a small achievement of mine.

Ultimately, in the crypto space, there are mainly three states of position management:

First, when highly optimistic about the market outlook, choose to invest fully;

Second, when not optimistic about the market direction, decisively exit and go to cash;

Third, when the market situation is unclear and difficult to judge, I also choose to remain in cash and observe.

These three states may seem simple, but they contain profound knowledge. To elaborate, when in a fully invested state, if the cryptocurrency market rises sharply, but the trend line begins to deteriorate and negative news continues to emerge, the confidence in investment decreases, and I will gradually reduce my position.

Of course, I do not clear positions with one button like in a simulated environment; it usually takes 2 to 4 days to gradually reduce my positions to zero.

Similarly, when the market's downward trend gradually slows down and positive news begins to emerge, I will also increase my positions from cash to fully invested over 2 to 4 days. From an operational perspective, it is that simple.

However, in stark contrast to the simplicity of operations is the complexity and difficulty of market judgment. Accurately determining whether the crypto market is strengthening or weakening requires a comprehensive application of technical analysis methods, precise grasp of the macroeconomic rhythm, insight into market sentiment cycles, consideration of overall market valuation levels, and in-depth research on the true value of individual cryptocurrencies, among other factors, to make a holistic and comprehensive judgment.

This kind of judgment is highly subjective and cannot be quantified with specific data. Furthermore, even after considering so many factors, the success rate of the judgment is not necessarily very high.

Fortunately, we trade infrequently, only acting when we have a high degree of confidence in the market trend. Therefore, from an overall perspective, achieving profit is not difficult. When we judge correctly, we can achieve positive returns; and when we misjudge, most of the time, we simply miss the opportunity.

Reflecting carefully, I realize that in the past, there were very few cases of misjudgment when choosing the timing to be bullish and buy. The most noticeable mistake was after August 2023. At that time, after breaking the trend line, I did not exit in time, resulting in a significant loss of previously accumulated profits.

However, in the subsequent review process, it is clear that at the point where the trend line broke, decisively reducing positions was the best response strategy. This also shows that my grasp of position management at that time was not mature enough.

The core of trading lies in seeking unlimited profits while accepting certain losses.

Do not treat price as a goal or see the fluctuations as everything. True profit does not come from short-term volatility, but rather from the skills learned and experiences accumulated through each fluctuation. Therefore, do not equate chasing prices with making money; those who chase trends often end up as fodder. The real winners are those who silently accumulate experience during the lows, as they know that opportunities will eventually come. Do not let emotions become your strategy; do not let momentary impulses ruin your chance to make substantial profits. First, learn to calm down and formulate your strategy without being influenced by market emotional fluctuations. True profit is not about one explosive moment but about calm analysis and precise execution.

Old Bo only does real transactions; the trading team still has spots available.