Some people rolled $5,000 into $1 million in six months, while others lost $500,000 in a day - the difference is not luck, but in executing the rolling position strategy. The core summary of 4 years of practical experience boils down to two words: 'guard' and 'ferocity.' Wait: 90% of the time in lurking, 10% of the time harvesting.
90% of people are stuck in the death loop of 'small profits run, big losses hold on,' yet no one tells you: the true essence of trading lies in 'technical rules.' Stop-loss when wrong to save your life with indicators; when right, hold on with signals to lock in profits. These 5 technical iron rules have allowed me to go from frequent liquidation to earning 3 times in a single market - today we will break down the practical details of each step, and you can apply them after reading.
One, follow the trend: use the 20-day moving average to draw a 'life-and-death line.'
The crypto world does not need to predict the market, just use a moving average to stand firm in the 'trend camp':
Bull-bear boundary: set the 20-day moving average as 'automatic navigation'; only go long when the price is above the average, and only go short when it falls below the average (for example, Bitcoin stabilized above the 20-day line at $30,000 in 2023, and then rose to $48,000, requiring only long positions throughout);
Filtering noise: ignore short-term fluctuations, as long as the price does not close on the other side of the 20-day line for 3 consecutive days, it does not count as a trend reversal. For example, Ethereum oscillates around $2,000, but remains above the 20-day line, you should stick to the long logic.
Technical principle: the 20-day moving average can filter out 80% of invalid fluctuations, more reliable than staring at the market for 12 hours. When SOL drops from $100 to $80 in 2024, the 20-day line is always upward, this is a 'false drop' signal, and later indeed rebounds to $150.
Two, opening positions: use the 'profit-loss ratio radar' to lock in guaranteed profits.
Opening a position is not about mood, but calculating 'how much loss is acceptable, how much profit to take action':
Entry formula: stop-loss must be less than 1/3 of the expected take-profit point (for example, if the stop-loss is set at 500U, the take-profit must be at least 1500U);
Technical points:
Early trend: stabilizing with reduced volume near the 20-day line, and MACD green bars shortening (for example, BTC retraces to the 20-day line at $35,000, green bars shorten from long to short, at this point opening position stop-loss is only 3%);
Breakthrough moment: price breaks through the previous high with volume increasing by 2 times (for example, when ETH breaks through $2,500, the trading volume is 3 times the average of the previous 3 days, set stop-loss at the previous high of $2,450, profit-loss ratio reaches 5:1).
Case study: In 2023, APT broke through the previous high of $12 from $10, according to the formula the stop-loss is calculated at $11.5 (5% loss), and the take-profit is estimated at $18 (50% profit), the profit-loss ratio is 10:1, this kind of opportunity is worth a heavy investment.
Three, stop-loss: must cut losses when breaking the 'key level,' no negotiation.
The harshest thing in the crypto world isn't the market, it's when you still fantasize about a rebound at the 'key breakout point.'
Technical stop-loss points:
Short-term: the 5-day line turns down and the closing price falls below the 10-day line (for example, MEME coin drops from $0.5 to $0.45, the 5-day line dead crosses the 10-day line, must stop loss);
Medium to long-term: the 20-day line closes down for 3 consecutive days, and MACD's red bars turn green (for example, DOT drops from $15 to $13, the 20-day line turns down, at this point not stopping loss will get stuck at $8).
Iron rule: after a stop-loss, even if the price rebounds, you must reopen the position. In 2022, I shorted Bitcoin, stopped out at $30,000, it rebounded to $32,000, but later dropped to $16,000 - following the rules only misses once, not following will miss everything.
Four, increasing positions: 'go with the big trend and against the small trend' when in profit, let the profits run.
The core of making big money is not opening a position, but timing the increase in positions:
Safe position increase point:
Price retraces to the 20-day line to stop falling, and MACD has a golden cross above the zero axis (for example, SOL retraced from $120 to $100, stabilized at the 20-day line, and added positions after the golden cross);
Breakthrough of previous highs with increased volume (for example, when BTC breaks through $40,000, set the stop-loss for the increased position at $39,000 while keeping the base position's stop-loss unchanged).
Position control: each time the position is increased should not exceed 50% of the base position; for example, if the base position is 1000U, the maximum increase is 500U - even if the increase is wrong, the total loss can be controlled within 10%.
Effect: Ethereum started from $1,800 in 2021, adding positions 3 times according to this method, ultimately turning $100,000 into $1.2 million, with the added positions contributing 70% of the profits.
Five, taking profits: wait for the 'top signal' before acting; don’t be a 'deserter.'
Those who easily take profits will never earn from trends:
Signals that must be waited for:
Top divergence: price hits a new high but MACD's red bars shorten (for example, when BTC rises to $69,000, the red bars are 30% shorter than at the previous high, take profit at this time);
Death cross confirmed: weekly DIF line crosses below DEA line (for example, in 2022, LUNA fell from $110 to $90, the weekly line crosses below, not taking profits at this time will lead to zero).
Operation: either close all at once (suitable for beginners), or take profits in 3 batches (50% for the first batch, clear the remainder after the death cross).
Lesson: In 2023, when BNB rose from $300 to $400, some people made a 20% profit and ran away, but missed the subsequent rise to $550 - taking profits too early essentially means not understanding that 'the trend hasn't ended until the top signal appears.'
Key point: the formula for making money in the crypto world = 'technical rules × discipline.' The 20-day moving average sets direction, profit-loss ratio screens opportunities, set stop-loss at key levels, increase positions during retracements, and take profits at top signals - these 5 steps seem simple, but can filter out 90% of loss traps.
Bookmark this article and check against it before placing orders: which of your actions align with it? What step is missing? Let me know in the comments, and I will help you fill in the technical details.
Old Bo only engages in real trading; the team still has positions available.
