90% of losses in the crypto market are not due to misreading the market, but because of position collapses: being trapped with full positions when bottom-fishing, holding light positions when the trend comes, and being liquidated when using leverage. In 2021, I turned 50,000 U into 8 million, and the core was not guessing accurately, but relying on two position management techniques — left-side bottom-fishing to average down costs, right-side chasing trends to lock in profits, plus a gradual position increase formula, even with a win rate of 50%, I can outperform 90% of people.
1. Left-side position management: The 'funnel-style position increase method' of bottom-fishing.
Core logic: Enter the market in batches before a trend reversal, using 'small losses for trial and error + large dips for adding positions' to average down costs, suitable for volatile markets and the end of bear markets.
Capital allocation formula: 50,000 U split into 3 batches — 20% (10,000 U), 30% (15,000 U), 50% (25,000 U);
Entry signal:
First batch (20%): When the coin price breaks below the previous low but MACD shows divergence (e.g., BTC drops from 30,000 USD to 28,000 USD, and the DIF line does not create a new low);
Second batch (30%): When the pullback reaches 30% and volume decreases (e.g., ETH drops from 2000 USD to 1400 USD, volume shrinks to recent average 50%);
Third batch (50%): Weekly closes out a 'hammer line' and stabilizes at the 20-week line (e.g., SOL rises from 10 USD to 12 USD, with a long lower shadow on the weekly and support at the 20-week line).
Taboo: The interval for adding positions must be at least 10 days, and do not add unless the single drop does not reach 15% — in 2022, someone added 5 times between BTC 40,000 USD to 30,000 USD, and ended up with nothing when it dropped to 16,000 USD.
Case study: In 2023, before BTC started from 16,000 USD, according to the left-side strategy for adding positions: buy 20% at 16,000 USD, buy 30% at 15,000 USD, buy 50% at 14,000 USD, final cost of 14,800 USD, when it rises to 30,000 USD, the yield rate is 102%, earning 40% more than bottom-fishing with a full position.
2. Right-side position management: The 'moving average position increase method' of trend followers.
Core logic: Enter the market after the trend is confirmed, using 'moving average signals + breakout pullbacks' to add positions, suitable for bull markets and strong coins.
Four-step position increase iron rule (using ETH as an example):
Buy 1 (30% position): When the 5-day moving average crosses above the 10-day moving average (golden cross), and volume increases by 2 times (e.g., when ETH rises from 1800 USD to 1900 USD, invest 15,000 U);
Buy 2 (30% position): Break through the 20-day line (lifeline) and stabilize after a pullback (e.g., ETH pulls back to the 20-day line at 1950 USD without breaking, then add 15,000 U, total position 60%);
Buy 3 (20% position): Break through the previous high and MACD red bars amplify (e.g., ETH breaks above 2500 USD high, add 10,000 U, total position 80%);
Buy 4 (20% position): When the 5-day moving average crosses above the 10-day moving average (acceleration signal), operate with full position (e.g., when ETH rises to 3000 USD, add 10,000 U).
Technical anchor point: Each position increase must meet the 'closing price stabilizing at the signal level' condition; do not add in case of false breakout (e.g., a sudden spike followed by a drop).
Data: In 2021, ETH rose from 1800 USD to 4800 USD, with the right-side strategy for adding positions, achieving a final return of 210%, 60% more than a one-time full position — because it avoided 3 false breakout pullbacks.
3. Ultimate formula: Gradual position management with leverage.
Core logic: Use a 5% small position for trial and error, roll over profits to increase positions, and control losses at 0.5% of total capital, suitable for contract traders.
Operational steps:
Initial trial position: Use 5% of capital (2500 U) to open 3 times leverage, set stop-loss at 0.5% of total capital (250 U) — equivalent to betting 250 U for a potential 1000 U + profit;
Profit addition: After the first order is profitable, move the stop-loss to the cost price, and open the second 5% position (e.g., after BTC long position is profitable, use another 2500 U to open ETH long position);
Position upper limit: A maximum of 12 positions at 5% each (total position 60%), and must meet 'only open new positions when 80% of positions are profitable';
Stop-loss discipline: Cut any position immediately if the loss reaches 0.5% of total capital, and do not open new positions for the rest of the day.
Effect: In 2023, I used this method for contracts, with 11 stop-losses in a month (total loss 2750 U), but 3 profitable trades earned 52,000 U — losses are 'small gradual losses', profits are 'large rapid gains', and the capital curve shows a stepped increase.
4. School selection: Switch based on market conditions, refuse to rely on a single trick.
Never jump back and forth between 'full positions on the left side' and 'empty positions on the right side'. In 2022, I saw the worst case: full positions bottom-fishing in a bear market, but when a bull market arrives, only daring to hold light positions due to fear, ultimately missing a 10x opportunity.
The essence of position management is 'using mathematics to counteract human nature': Left-side relies on 'batching' to reduce bottom-fishing risk, right-side relies on 'signals' to amplify trend profits, and gradual positioning relies on 'small trials' to lock in leveraged profits. Remember: Earning 3 times on 50,000 U does not depend on one-time full position bets, but on the compounding of 10 times position control — when you can hold your position during a crash and hold your chips during a surge, you are already outperforming 90% of retail traders.
The old trader only does live trading; the team still has spots available, come quickly.
