In the early hours of today, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the July meeting, and here are the key points summarized:

1. The tug-of-war between employment and inflation: Some members expressed concerns about the state of the labor market, with non-farm payroll data and the unemployment rate becoming focal points. Among them, Waller and Bowman voted against due to the deterioration of the job market, advocating for an interest rate hike. However, the majority of members believe that the inflation risks posed by tariffs are more critical than the risks to employment, thus deciding to keep the interest rates unchanged.

2. Discussion on inflation risks triggered by tariffs: Federal Reserve members engaged in intense discussions about the inflation risks caused by tariffs, focusing on whether this risk is a one-time event or will persist in the long term. Most believe that tariffs could exacerbate the risk of long-term inflation out of control, but more time is needed for observation and to await more data for judgment.

3. Assessment of current interest rate levels: Most members feel that the current interest rate level is close to neutral, neither causing the economy to overheat nor restricting economic growth.

Considering the July non-farm payroll data, the employment risks previously concerning some members have intensified. Moving forward, attention should be focused on:

1. Powell's speech: This Friday, Powell will deliver a speech that may provide important guidance for the future direction of Federal Reserve policy, which is highly anticipated by the market.

2. Key data: From now until the September Federal Reserve meeting, all data such as CPI, PCE, PPI, non-farm payrolls, and unemployment rate will be of high concern to both the Federal Reserve and the market, as this data will provide crucial basis for subsequent policy decisions. $ETH $BTC #BNB创新高 #加密市场回调 #美联储7月会议纪要