Despite predictions of the demise of Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle, Glassnode's analysis shows concerning signals. Recent price volatility reflects historical patterns, suggesting this famous cycle may still dominate market pace. But this time, the risks are different.

Glassnode Defends Traditional Bitcoin Cycle Theory Against Skeptics

Chain analysis firm Glassnode published a report challenging the widely held belief that Bitcoin's famous four-year cycle has vanished.

According to data, Bitcoin's price movements reflect previous patterns, indicating that despite the rise of institutional investors, the fundamental cyclical mechanism has not been disrupted.

This study was conducted while Bitcoin was undergoing a consolidation phase after reaching an all-time high of 124,128 dollars on August 14.

Since this peak, the cryptocurrency has declined about 8.3%, currently trading around 113,940 dollars. Rather than seeing this as a sign of prolonged weakness, Glassnode views this correction as part of the traditional cycle logic.

However, on-chain indicators confirm short-term stresses. Profit-taking activity from long-term Bitcoin holders—those who have held Bitcoin for over 155 days—has now reached levels 'comparable to previous euphoric phases.' This distribution volatility indicates the market may be approaching the end of its cycle.

At the same time, institutional demand shows signs of stagnation. According to Farside Investors, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a net outflow of 975 million dollars in the last four sessions.

This decline in demand has led to a capital shift towards more speculative assets: open interest in altcoins hit a record 60 billion dollars for a brief period before falling back.

The Forecasting War, October 2025 or Extended Cycle?

While Glassnode defends the view that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is still relevant, the question of timing remains deeply divisive within the cryptocurrency community.

Analyst Rekt Capital noted back in July that according to the 2020 model, the market could peak in October 2025, about 550 days after the halving event in April 2024.

This hypothesis is based on our technical analysis from August 20. Despite a limited weekly correction of 1.5%, volume remains high at 48 billion dollars (+34%).

The underlying trend remains bullish in the medium and long term, although the short-term trend shows signs of weakening, with momentum being neutralized, which could signal a period of stability.

In contrast to this cyclical interpretation, an increasing number of experts are proposing a completely different perspective.

For Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, the Bitcoin cycle is 'dead' and the real bull market will only arrive in 2026. According to him, the importance of halving diminishes with each iteration, while monetary policy cycles, especially interest rates, play an increasingly crucial role in structuring.

Investor Jason Williams shares this view by highlighting the unprecedented impact of cryptocurrency adoption in institutions. He recalls that the top 100 companies hold nearly a million bitcoins.

According to BitcoinTreasuries.NET, public companies alone hold over 112 billion dollars in BTC. A significant volume that could redefine market rules and weaken the historical logic of cycles.

Thus, the debate over the existence of the four-year cycle reflects two opposing scenarios: one about a market still dominated by past patterns, and the other about a new era driven by institutional capital flows. The near future of Bitcoin will reveal whether history repeats itself... or will be written differently.