The Jackson Hole annual meeting has concluded, and Powell's speech can be said to have given the market a shot of confidence.
The key points are clear: inflation risks remain, but employment is under pressure, and monetary policy may need adjustments.
In simple terms: no preset path, but the tone has clearly turned dovish.
Therefore, in the short term, there is no escape from being bullish on risk assets, but how far this wave can go depends on the next three sets of data:
PCE, CPI (inflation)
Non-farm payrolls (employment)
These three data points will determine whether the 25 basis points rate cut on September 17 is 'secured' or if there are still uncertainties.
My personal projection is:
Moderate inflation data at the end of August
Soft employment data at the beginning of September
Continued stable inflation in mid-September
The Federal Reserve officially cuts rates by 25 basis points on September 17
If this unfolds, market expectations for easing will solidify, the dollar will continue to weaken, and risk assets will rise again.
At that time, Bitcoin and Ethereum will stabilize at high levels, and funds will start to flow into high Beta altcoins, with projects like $SOL likely to surge first, followed by an altcoin season. $BTC $ETH
